Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 3 - Back to what I know best

Other / Jack Houghton / 27 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Delegator is huge value at a shade over even money to win the Celebration Mile on Saturday.

"Having demonstrated my punting versatility however, it’s now time to paddle leisurely back into the more familiar rapids of tennis and horseracing. This will no doubt calm many readers."

Jack unashamedly gloats over his skin-of-the-teeth win on the Baltimore Ravens and turns his attentions to two sports that have brought him much success in recent times, horseracing and tennis.

Laying low in a holiday cottage in Norfolk whilst some heat over a botched rare-bird trade subsided down south, I wasn't able to catch the drubbing given the New York Jets by last week's challenge pick: the Baltimore Ravens. A drubbing nonetheless it was though. Confidantes who watched the game tell me the Ravens dominated all areas of play; cruising throughout to a comfortable 24-23 victory - which I assume was the game score, rather than an improper fraction.

The upshot was a much needed fillip for the Betting Challenge bank; with it now on its way irreversibly toward profit.

Having demonstrated my punting versatility however, it's now time to paddle leisurely back into the more familiar rapids of tennis and horseracing. This will no doubt calm many readers. After all, as you will recall, it is tennis and racing that have provided the stage for the biggest of my big-priced tipping performances this year: performances for which, no doubt, I will be rewarded at a glitzy show-biz ceremony at some latter juncture.

And having backed Federer for both the French Open and Wimbledon, it's hard to find reason to oppose him for the US. His loss to Tsonga in Montreal was to be expected. It was his first tournament since the grass-court season ended at Wimbledon: a period during which he became a father to twin girls. Whatever rustiness or sleeplessness led to a below par performance in Canada though was rectified come Cincinnati, where he eased past Murray and Djokovic.

In terms of opposition to Federer, Nadal is progressing after his return from injury. His performance in Cincinnati was a step up on Montreal but, whilst I can see him going "deep" (which seems to be the word tennis writers use instead of "far" these days) into the tournament, I doubt he is yet playing with the intensity to be genuinely competitive in the latter stages. So [8.0] looks short about the Spaniard. As does the [16.0] currently available for Roddick. Resurgent at Wimbledon, he has been woeful since, with his first match defeat by Sam Querrey a particular concern in Cincinnati. He may find some big performances for the big tournament, but I'd need a bit more juice in his odds to take the risk.

That really leaves only Murray and Djokovic. Murray is progressive and may one day unpick Federer's dominance on a hard court, but at not much more than double Federer's price, the market is overplaying his chance of doing so this year. As for Djokovic, he seems unable to find a game to beat the very best in the world. He will likely be around in the latter stages, but can't be backed at the paltry price of [15.5].

In my book, Federer should be odds-on, so is massive value at [2.52]. I'm having £30 on.

At 3.10pm on Saturday afternoon, the now Godolphin-trained Delegator steps down in class to contest the Celebration Mile and, for some reason I'm yet to comprehend, I have just received my fifth communiqué outlining why he's a horse to be against. On Sunday morning I may wish I'd heeded the advice sent my way; but to my mind, the horse is a gift-price at the currently available [2.04], and I'll be backing him with £10 of the Betting Challenge bank.

He's almost a stone clear of the field on my speed ratings and, although there are some performances in the back catalogue of Beacon Lodge and Cesare that put them closer than that to the favourite on handicap ratings, the great likelihood is they will still require lifetime bests to beat Delegator in conditions that should suit.

Much is made of the chance of Zacinto but, on the figures at least, he has a lot to prove and his price looks ridiculously short. The presence of the pace-making Evasive should ensure the most able horse wins the race, and on everything we know so far, and no matter what theories the naysayers have come up with, that horse should be Delegator.

This week's bets:
£30 BACK of Roger Federer in US Open at [2.52]
£10 BACK of Delegator in Celebration Mile at [2.04]