Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 28: Downhill value?

Other / Jack Houghton / 13 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

"Osborne-Paradis — winner in Val Gardena earlier in the season — is skiing a course he knows well and, although he is playing down the advantage this brings, he is value at [11.0]."

After last week's Super Bowl bet went awry, Jack finds himself in the red. Can he rebuild his empire via the Winter Olympics?

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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I won't pretend the New Orleans Saints' win in last weekend's Super Bowl was anything other than a piercing wound in the side of the Betting Challenge. The popular press loved it of course: a victory for a still destitute city; a modern-day David defeating Goliath; the moment where hope was restored to New Orleans.

What a crock of crap. The Super Bowl amounted to nothing more than two sides of 300 men, dressed in leotards and shoulder-pads, grunting a lot whilst touching each other. The only hope restored was that of 80s-fashion revival gymnastics' troupes. And there ain't many of those in the battered ghettos of America's murder capital.

So we find ourselves £60 in deficit, the Winter Olympics our only chance of salvation. Don't worry. This is not the disaster it looks. It just so happens I'm an expert on winter sports. I say expert. What I mean is, I watch Ski Sunday and once descended the Olympic run in Sestriere. But -- as an Italian football supremo once remarked, after being told David Platt was one of England's best footballers of recent years, and so would have no problem managing Sampdoria -- in a land of the blind, the one-eyed man is all seeing.

The men's downhill -- Alpine Skiing's flagship event -- has been known to throw-up huge surprises in past Olympics. Men like Cretier and Deneraiz, who could barely muster a World Cup win between them in decidedly unglittering careers, still managed to grab gold with one-time derring-do descents.

It's not impossible the same will happen Saturday evening (UK time). Less consistent skiers are unable to secure early start positions in World Cup events, effectively precluding them from podium finishes. With nations like Austria and Switzerland limited to four skiers each -- when they could conceivably offer up more than half of the world's best 30 skiers -- men of lesser skiing nations will be getting a look at fresh snow for the first time they can remember. And if they take risks that more successful skiers avoid -- and arrive at the bottom of the mountain with their skeletal system intact -- a surprise gold could be theirs.

The likelihood is though that, on the testing Dave Murray downhill course, a more established skier will prevail. Cuche -- winner at Kitzbuehel in January and the current World Cup leader -- is favourite. But he offers no value. Instead, the Betting Challenge will look towards Manuel Osborne-Paradis (who might be related to Vanessa) and Swiss-upstart Carlo Janka.

Osborne-Paradis -- winner in Val Gardena earlier in the season -- is skiing a course he knows well and, although he is playing down the advantage this brings, he is value at [11.0]. Janka put in the performance of the season when coming down the Lauberhorn in January over half-a-second ahead of the rest and has consistently shown no fear on the big occasion. Odds of [18.5] look enormous. The Betting Challenge is having £10 on each.

The market on Great Britain winning a gold medal is fairly illiquid at the time of writing, with the [2.3] offered about Yes looking miserly. So I'm going to put up a £20 BACK at [2.74]. It should be matched - a similar price is available in the fixed-odds' world - and we stand a good chance of collecting. Team GB have decent chances in the Bobsleigh, Skeleton and Curling competitions -- and you never know where else they might provide a shock. The women's 12.5km mass start biathlon perhaps?

This week's bets:
£10 Back of Osborne-Paradis at [11.0] in Winter Olympics' Men's Downhill market.
£10 Back of Janka at [18.5] in Winter Olympics' Men's Downhill market.
£20 Back of Yes at [2.74] in Team GB Gold Medal market.