Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 26: Ireland don't even need luck

Other / Jack Houghton / 30 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Brian O'Driscoll will, as ever, be Ireland's main man as they try to defend their Six Nations crown

"The Six Nations starts next Saturday (6th February) with current Grand Slam holders, Ireland, kicking off proceedings against perennial whipping-boys Italy and, unbeaten since November 2008, Ireland have to be the most likely winners of this year‘s renewal. Yet for no good reason I can find, Ireland, at [3.7], are a full point bigger in the Outright Winner market than France."

As he waits for the winners of the Australian Open to be known, Jack Houghton turns his attentions to the upcoming Six Nations and invests some more of his balance on politics markets.

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

If Federer and Serena can't to do the double this weekend, I'll be in trouble. Big trouble. The kind of trouble that has an honest man lumping on some until-then-unheard-of Slovenian in the Winter Olympics' skeleton bob. But we're not there yet, so rest easy. At the time of writing the two of them stand tall, tennis titans, representing all that is righteous about the Betting Challenge; acting as guardians against all that is wrongeous about those insipid good-for-nothings at betting.betfair Editorial Control.

And, should Federer and Serena prevail in Melbourne, the Betting Challenge, although not in profit, will nonetheless look a stable investment vehicle in these troubled economic times. Our unsettled politics' bets look strong; Manchester United are not finished in the Premier Laeague; and, considering Solwhit's victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle tells us little about who will win Cheltenham's equivalent, our Festival portfolio looks fine.

But that's the future. To the near-present we must go. The Six Nations starts next Saturday (6th February) with current Grand Slam holders, Ireland, kicking off proceedings against perennial whipping-boys Italy and, unbeaten since November 2008, Ireland have to be the most likely winners of this year's renewal. Yet for no good reason I can find, Ireland, at [3.7], are a full point bigger in the Outright Winner market than France.

Wales, walloped by Australia the last time they took the field, will be a test for all - especially taking on the French at home - but away fixtures against Ireland and England give them a difficult task overall and, as potential winners, the currently available [5.8] looks bad value.

Not quite as bad as the [6.0] of England though. Woeful of late, that price says more about broadsheet sportswriters' incessant desire to overhype any red-rosed team than it does England's genuine chance of winning. Johnson has yet to demonstrate he can put together a team that wins consistently and, home draw against Ireland aside, there is little to recommend them.

France have an obvious chance, but no more so than Ireland. Therefore, at the prices, the Betting Challenge is backing Ireland in the Outright Winner market for £40 at [3.7]. For the same reason - and hoping they can repeat their feats of last year - I'm also backing them for £10 at [7.8] in the Grand Slam market.

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Adding to our portfolio of political bets, Betfair's Party Seats Line, in the Next General Election section, is fascinating. As written about before in this blog, I feel the polls overstate the chances of the Conservatives in the next election. Sure, they're almost certain to win the most seats, but given widespread disaffection and apathy about the future under either of the two major parties, third and minor parties could play a major role.

For this reason, the Betting Challenge is buying the Liberal Democrats at 53.5 for £50 (effectively an even money bet that they will win 54 seats or more). Admittedly, Nick Clegg epitomises ineffectuality - why he hasn't made more of his party's opposition to the Iraq war and relative probity during the expenses' scandal is beyond me - but, even so, it's difficult to see how they will not at least match their current MP count of 63 post-General Election.

This week's bets:

£40 BACK of Ireland at [3.7] in Outright Winner market in Six Nations.
£10 BACK of Ireland at [7.8] in Grand Slam market in Six Nations.
£50 BUY of Liberal Democrats at 53.5 in Party Seats Line market.