GAA Betting: Old bankers Kerry and Kilkenny will do it again

Other / Editor / 05 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Newstalk 'Off the Ball' presenter Ciaran Murphy previews Sunday's Munster Football Final and tells us why only a Henry Shefflin voodoo doll can spare Wexford getting trounced by Kilkenny in the Leinster Hurling Final.

Betting against Kerry and Kilkenny has been about as foolproof a way to part with your money as you can think of this decade, and a look at the formbook would suggest that this weekend wouldn't appear to be the time to start opposing them. When Cork and Wexford last provided the opposition for the 2007 All-Ireland champions in both codes, ten points separated the sides.

At 2pm this Sunday, Cork and Kerry meet in the 'traditional' Munster football final in Pairc Ui Chaoimh, with revenge for the massacre last September very much in the minds of Conor Counihan's team.

This year has already seen a player's strike in Cork - one not fully supported by their public - and after the turmoil of the opening months of the year it would appear reasonable to suggest that they have even gone backwards since that humiliating reversal in last year's All-Ireland final.

But Kerry have well-documented problems of their own, with two of their best forwards unavailable. Declan O'Sullivan is out with a knee injury that required surgery last month, and Paul Galvin of course is suspended after the most talked-about attack on a piece of stationery since Nikita Khruschev took his shoe off and went medieval on that UN-standard issue notepad's ass.

And as is always the way with these great rivals, home advantage must count for something. Cork will be tight at the back - Conor Counihan's defensive nous will have seen to that - and I can see this being a low-scoring slog-fest. But Kerry still will have too much class. Cork can beat the Betfair handicap (3.5 points), but not Kerry.

Four PM in Croke Park sees Kilkenny take on Wexford in what Brian Cody keeps telling us - to barely suppressed laughter - will be one hell of a ding-dong battle in the Leinster hurling final. Betfair punters aren't so sure though, that's why Wexford are available at the not particularly unfair price of [17.0], which in a two-horse race surely can't be sniffed at. A quick Google search of "Henry Shefflin - voodoo dolls - next day delivery" however would indicate that Wexford's sole chance of victory is not presently available in the free market.

The Kilkenny machine rolls relentlessly on, and even a recent spate of injuries hasn't knocked them off track. Michael Fennelly, Richie Power, Noel Hickey and John Tennyson have all suffered knocks in the last number of weeks but the strength in depth of Cody's squad is such that they can be dismissed as minor inconveniences.

Remember this is the team that lost Henry Shefflin at half time of last year's All-Ireland and still won pulling up. That aura of invincibility may not last forever but at the moment it's probably worth four or five points before a ball is pucked.

Wexford have already confounded the bookies by overcoming favourites Dublin in the Leinster semi-final but the challenge they face on Sunday is another level altogether. Complacency might be a problem but has there ever been a manager (in any sport) better than Brian Cody at rooting out complacency, in his teams and in his players individually? Put simply Wexford don't appear to have the physicality or the skills to make this a tempting one for the punter.

Think of a dodgy pasta dish taking out Kilkenny's entire first XV. Then contemplate an over-night invasion of the other 10 counties in Leinster which brings them all under Wexford's control. Now, consider the rather controversial appointment of a Serie A referee from the mid-90s, with Juventus' training ground on speed dial and a grandmother on his mother's side who hailed from just outside Gorey, to throw the ball in. And then... lump on Kilkenny to beat even the prohibitive Betfair handicap of 18.5 points.