Other / Jack Houghton / 26 June 2008 / Leave a comment

In recent years backers have lost money when their selections were booted out for doping. Jack Houghton has some essential advice: Don't bet on the tour until it has started.

That there is a Wikipedia entry dedicated to Doping at the Tour De France demonstrates the infamous bond between the great race and drugs. For much of this shared history, the drugs in question were used to dull the pain of the event and not necessarily for the performance-enhancing purposes we are more familiar with today.

In fact, some commentators suggest (although it's difficult to find concrete evidence of this) that organisers curtailed the distance and severity of the Tour in the 1960s: to reduce the need for competitors to fuel their race with pharmaceuticals.

Yes, unbelievably, there was a time when the Tour was more arduous than it is now. As if 2,200 miles, whilst climbing the equivalent of three Everests, in three weeks, is a soft option. Personally, I wouldn't even start one stage unless a pharmacist was certain to stay at my side, repeatedly peppering my body with every performance-enhancing, and sense-dulling, drug known to medicine. Perhaps race officials, the police and media should go a bit easier on these Lycra-clad peddlers?

It would certainly make punters' lives easier. Because the last two renewals of the Tour have seen some backers lose money as their selections have been booted out of the race. Take those who backed long-time pre-race favourite Ivan Basso in 2006. Thrown off the Tour, along with 16 other riders, a day before the curtain-raising Prologue: anyone who had supported the short-priced favourite lost their money under the "all bets stand, run or not" rules of the Betfair market.

Undoubtedly some people (those who had laid the disqualified riders or backed other riders at pre-disqualification odds) profited, but the events determined a golden rule for all future Tour punters: don't place a bet on the Tour until it's started.

After all, it's not as if there's much advantage in getting involved in the overall winner market too soon anyway, as nothing of note is likely to occur until the first significant mountain stage: this year coming nine days in.

Because one thing guaranteed in this year's Tour, which has been true of every Tour in recent times, is that it will be won and lost in the mountains. Unlike flat stages, where organised teams can draft their leading rider to a point where any breakaway is nullified - or at least reduced - mountain stages leave riders exposed: either they're good enough or they are not. If they have a single bad day on the hills, they can frequently lose many minutes; precluding them from any serious challenge for overall race honours. Conversely, a rider who makes a successful mountain attack can all but win the Tour in one effort.

When the key mountain moment will occur in this year's race is difficult to predict, but it is unlikely to be in those first two days in the Pyrenees. However, those stages will provide useful clues (as will two intermediate mountain stages: six and seven) as to who is properly prepared for the race, and who will be able to mount the significant efforts when the race reaches the Alps on stage 15. The best advice is to watch those Pyrenean stages closely and punt the overall market accordingly.

That's not to say that, long before the winner's market becomes a viable betting option, profit can't be gleaned from each individual stage market. But it's certainly not easy. After years of watching the Tour, I'm still a little nonplussed as to when a breakaway will be allowed to stay broken-away, or when the hive-minded will insist on its destruction. But a useful rule of thumb for those betting in-running is that if it looks like the pack has made up its mind to chase, it can generally close down runaways at a rate of a minute every nine or ten kilometres; meaning a relatively straightforward bit of maths can tell you the true odds of a stage leader. However, be prepared to constantly monitor your bets, because just as quickly as the Peloton can decide to chase, it can decide to relent. It really is a complicated organism, as Paul Hochman describes so well here.

Tags: Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde, Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, Cycling Betting, Damiano Cunego, Denis Menchov, Juan Mauricio Soler Hernandez, Michael Rogers, Stijn Devolder, Thomas Dekker, Tour de France