Boat Race Betting: Weighing up each team's merits

Other / Jack Houghton / 29 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton wonders whether the results of the weigh-in are the be-all-and-end-all of the 155th Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge and suggests some in-running betting options.

The Boat Race crew selectors at Oxford and Cambridge need a big boot up the arse. As any of us once-yearly experts on the farcical event could tell them: the heavier crew always wins. So why choose all these athletic looking chaps from the rowing club? Surely it makes sense to get down the student union and round up the real big fellas: the ones selflessly sacrificing their bodies to a gruelling diet of lager, crisps and kebabs; all in the hope they can put on a few extra pounds and do their university proud.

If I were a selector - and I'm expecting the call any day now - I would scour the country for proper fatties, finding some way of getting them a place at the university. Admittedly, it might mean one of our great scholarly institutions offering a BTEC in watching television - in order to get the less academically able ones through the door - but so what? This is the boat race for cripes sake. The honour of the university is at stake.

Imagine the look of terrified awe on the faces of my rival team at the weigh-in: realising the gargantuan task they face trying to overcome a weight disadvantage of 22 stone a man. We would win by a distance. I would be hailed a hero: carried on the shoulders of admiring university students as the man who revolutionised the Boat Race by bringing it to the masses.

Unfortunately it might not be that simple. Although years of listening to Boat Race previewers have made us all obsessed by the weight of the competitors - to the extent that the weigh-in is now seen as the first crucial element of the race itself, with crews reportedly drinking excess amounts of water beforehand to bulk up by a few pounds - since 1980, the heavier boat has only gone on to win 60 per cent of the time.

The flurry of post-weigh-in wagers on the heavier crew then might not always represent astute investment. And those who've backed Oxford at [1.32] on the basis of their weight advantage might feel a little nervous: that's a short price for a 60 per cent strike rate. However, the story of this year's weigh-in was the significance of Oxford's weight advantage: a vast 10lbs per man. And for such large discrepancies, the picture is much more uniform: since 1980, only two crews in 14 have overturned such a weight disadvantage.

On that basis, the [1.32] on Oxford might look like value. However, the smarter bet might be to back them at [2.8] to win the race by under 3.5 lengths. Since 1980, half of victorious crews have won by a greater margin; but interestingly, when you look at those crews with such a large weight advantage, they've proved less able than the average to put their opposition away by a large distance.

There could be a number of reasons for this. First, weight might not be the key determinant of Boat Race success that we've all been led to believe (and there's certainly not enough data to confirm it to be so). Second, perhaps the bigger, more powerful crews are able to dominate the first part of the race, gaining an unassailable tactical advantage, but then rarely have the required endurance to completely row away from their opponents. So a solid, but unimpressive Oxford win it is then.

There doesn't seem to be a huge advantage in either station: Middlesex or Surrey, with the latter proving victorious in 11 of the last 20 races. So when you hear the teams talk up their river position post-toss, don't be fooled into thinking it should affect the betting.

If you're getting involved in-running, it's worth noting that 85 per cent of boats to reach Hammersmith Bridge first have gone on to win; although, perhaps interestingly, or perhaps just coincidentally, that figure has reduced to just 50 per cent in the last six renewals.

Lastly for the in-runners, as one website warns, crews can struggle when they reach Fuller's Brewery. It is "the most exposed section of the course with the risk of wind problems." I went on an all-drinks-free tour of the place once, and can confirm the risk to be very real, certainly the morning after.