Betfair Official Blog

Steves Big Brother Betting Guide

Over the last couple of years, Betfair's resident special bets guru Steve has shared his thoughts and insight on the much hyped summer bonanza that is Big Brother. They're just as relevant now as they were then, so take his comments on board this summer and see if you can make a profit - and give yourself the perfect excuse for a summer of compulsive viewing!"

For generations, the concept of Big Brother was inextricably linked with Orwell's 1984 - a symbolic warning against all things tyrannical. For this generation however, the concept is inextricably linked with dysfunctional attention-seeking no-bodies who exist on the edges of society, thrust into the limelight in a circus-freak-show-esque attempt to make normal people feel good about themselves. Just my opinion mind...

The Basics

"The key to betting on these markets is INFORMATION - and the obvious starting point is the TV. For the dedicated, Big Brother is on TV 24/7 for a 3 month period. That kind of viewing is beyond most of us, but at a minimum, you need to be watching all of the main highlights shows. It's also recommended to watch the daily support shows, Big Brother's Little Brother, Big Brother's Big Mouth and new for this year, Big Brother on the couch, on Sunday night.

You also need to keep an eye on a number of key websites - a valuable source for rumours and in assessing the general public perception of the contestants. And I like to be up-to-the-minute with the latest news wherever I am, so I'm an avid user of the Digital Spy website over my mobile."

At this stage, Steve reels-off a list of websites, with descriptions of what they're good for. I've listed them below.

Outside Influences

"But just because this is the internet and TV generation, don't ignore the print and radio media. The Sun is the best selling newspaper in the UK and has previously campaigned on behalf of numerous contestants. It's dangerous to under-estimate the influence this can have - as is the case with the popular radio shows on Radio 1. At the end of the day, people reading The Sun and listening to Chris Moyles are more likely to vote on Big Brother than most."

"Don't be ashamed to canvas opinions. What do people in your office think? Are the people who like a particular contestant likely to vote? It's not very scientific, but this kind of information can be a great sense check on the rest of the information you are getting."

"It's also important to keep your eye on the Betfair market - it can often react quicker to events than most other things. And read the Betfair Forum. At the end of the day, Big Brother is all about people's opinions on things, and opinions abound on the Forum. Just be careful of ramping though. Every year I lose count of the number of posts claiming that someone's girlfriend works on the show and has said that a particular contestant has been evicted - they're nearly always attempts to move a market enough to be able to trade into a profitable position."

And once you have all this wonderful information I ask, what do you do with it?

Evictions

"People often laugh at me when I say that I take an analytical approach to betting on Big Brother - they don't think it's possible. I'm not saying there's anything scientific about it, but you at least have to be organised in your thoughts. Before a nomination, I draw up a matrix (example below) of the relationships in the house - rating everyone's thoughts on others in the house using a scale between 1 & 5. 5 indicates they get along with a housemate while 1 indicates some hostilities between two contestants. This has proved an amazingly reliable guide. And I also make sure I keep a record of who's nominated who in the past."

Steve's Nomination Matrix From BB4

"Once the nominations are done, it's over to the public for the evictions. The key resources here are the various online polls. The main one I use is AOL. By tracking it over time you can then calculate the daily trends - which can fluctuate widely - especially on the last day of voting when interest increases."

The Final Vote

"When it gets down to the final few and you have to start thinking about the likely winner, I like to take into account any local allegiances that may get contestants votes and think about what types of people are likely to vote for who. If there are a number of contestants who might appeal to a similar group, this could limit the total votes that they may receive."

Steve's Thought's on the Likely Winner From BB4

Expect the Unexpected

"My final bit of advice would be to always expect the unexpected. To make the show entertaining and newsworthy, the producers will always think of ways to change things round - new contestants, different voting rights, sectioning off parts of the house. This can easily scupper you if you've relied on a particular course of events. Be flexible in your approach."

I hope that you're as suitably excited as Steven. Personally I can't wait. After all, what the entertainment world really needs is an one-legged Aztec bi-sexual girl with Tourette's Syndrome. Life just wouldn't be the same without them...

Key Websites

anorak.co.uk - Established and respected, they are taking Big brother very seriously this year (07) - expect to some very useful info from them.

popbet.com - Interesting take on betting and Big Brother Betting

bigbrother.digitalspy.co.uk - This site has everything. News, live updates from the house, forums, polls and predictions from ex-housemates plus up to the minute live updates on your mobile.

www.channel4.com/bigbrother - The official website. You can get live streaming from the house, although you have to pay for it.

www.bigbrotheronline.co.uk - Good site for both discussion forums and polls.

www.aol.com - This poll is generally regarded as the most reliable because of the number of votes it gets.

www.popbitch.com - Sometimes this site offers gossip on who is up for eviction. In the past few years I have had a good success rate with their views.

news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews - It's important to keep in touch with the forums and polls of the big-voting younger viewers.

www.newsnow.co.uk -Links to news reports on any subject you can think of. Ideal therefore for Big Brother.