Moto GP / Trent Burton / 24 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Trent Burton can't see past the Italian and his Spanish opposition in his final betting preview of the year.

Valencia this weekend is the traditional end of season round and it seems the two most common questions asked in 2008 are as relevant as ever: who is going to take the challenge up to Valentino Rossi? And what is the weather going to do?

At almost every round this year there's been at least one day of rain and today's morning sessions in Spain were greeted with wet conditions that are expected to continue.

And while Valentino may have been lingering towards the bottom of the sheets this morning, as he has proved time and time again, expect him to turn that around by Sunday. He is a sensible favourite this round at [2.16].

Casey Stoner may have wrapped up second in the championship last weekend but he looked a long way from the man that took it up to Rossi for a good part of this season. The effects of riding for so long with a broken wrist seem to be finally taking a toll on the Aussie.

After struggling to sixth in Malaysia he said: "I had no feeling whatsoever from my injured hand today, it just wasn't working. It meant I had to put all the pressure onto my right hand. It started cramping up and I couldn't even get the throttle fully open down the straights."

With his mind more on the Monday tests of the 2009 Ducati and his upcoming operation, it's understandable that he has slipped out to [5.2] for the win. He was second on Friday morning and may well qualify well but the prospect of another long race could make this a good value lay bet on Saturday evening. It's just a little difficult to see him really battling for the win for the first time in a long time.

With that in mind Valencia could turn into a case of Rossi versus the Spaniards. Dani Pedrosa looked good in Malaysia as he took second, his best result yet on Bridgestones. Valencia is a track he really enjoys and he won here last year. A podium in Sepang takes some of the pressure off and he could genuinely challenge for the win. Victory here would give him a clean sweep of the Spanish circuits in 2008 after already coming out on top at Jerez and Barcelona. So [3.9] is a good price for a Pedrosa - his early Friday pace is a good sign given he is usually a slow starter.

The other local set to hassle Valentino is his own team-mate Jorge Lorenzo. Excluding his fall in Malaysia, he has been back to his early season consistency of late and would love to cap off his remarkable rookie year with a second win. He currently trades at [10.5] for the win. Lorenzo wrapped up the 250cc title in Valencia in 2006 and sat third on Friday morning so it will definitely pay to keep an eye on him over the weekend.

Being the last race of the season there are always a few with points to prove. From those still searching for a 2009 job or guys who're moving to new teams next year, the last race of the year can always throw up a few surprises.

One man who will be feeling mixed emotions this weekend is the one who topped the sheets on Friday morning, Nicky Hayden.

This will be his last race as a factory Honda rider and he will want to say thank you to the manufacturer he has spent his entire career with and for whom he took the 2006 World Championship.

But he'll also want to beat his 'team-mate' Pedrosa as one final not so polite message to the side of the garage that effectively forced him out of the team. And then come Monday morning he'll be pulling on the red leathers for his first day as a factory Ducati rider and will be riding the Italian machine for the very first time. Something he has been none too shy in expressing his excitement over. He's [3.3] for a podium this weekend which is a sound investment but he's also my roughie to pull off a huge upset and take a win at [30.0]. No-one will be as fired up as the American this weekend.

I might not have mentioned the race favourite much, but with Rossi there's almost no need. There's little more that can be said about the absolutely stellar season he has had. He may have wrapped up the title a few races back but he'll be going just as hard for the win on Sunday as if it were the first race of the season for one simple reason. That's what champions do. And Rossi is so much more than just a champion.

2008 has been his year and he'd love nothing more than to finish it with a resounding exclamation mark in Valencia.