The Contrarian: Why Valentino Rossi won't win the Moto GP World Championship

Moto GP / The Betfair Contrarian / 26 June 2008 / 2 Comments

The 2006 Moto GP season started with Valentino Rossi chasing a sixth-straight Championship. Winning was becoming so easy for the Italian that he even started to wonder out loud about switching to Formula One or rallying in search of a tougher challenge. Then a few brash rookies rolled up and started making him look ordinary.

Eight races into this season, Rossi has fought his way back to the top spot and suddenly he's 1.63 on Betfair to win the Championship. But the Contrarian reckons you'd be much better off looking at reigning champion Casey Stoner at 4.9 or consistent youngster Dani Pedrosa at 5.3.
Here's why:

His progress isn't that drastic

Rossi's level of consistency has improved this season but his 162 points after eight races isn't vastly superior to the 139 he had at the same stage 12 months ago. Last year, it was in the second half of the season that his championship charge collapsed and that is still an issue. The reason he appears so much better off this season is because champion Casey Stoner started slowly.

But Stoner is back to his best

Rossi's decent start last season was overshadowed by Stoner winning five of the first eight races, but despite winning this year's Qatar opener, the Australian has had a lacklustre start, with one third-placed finish the only highlight of his next four. He has since bounced back with three consecutive podium finishes, culminating in victory in Great Britain last weekend, and last year, with the exception of the race after Qatar, all Stoner's wins came in pairs.

It's better to pick up a few points than none at all

Stoner's progress in his debut 2006 MotoGP season was hampered by six retirements, but last season he completed every race en route to the title and has continued in the same vein this year. In contrast, Rossi has retired from three races in each of the last two seasons. Although he has completed every race so far, Rossi's three retirements last year all came in the second half of the season, which if repeated would allow Stoner to quickly chase down his 45 point deficit.

Don't rule out Dani Pedrosa

While talking up Stoner it's easy to forget that fellow 22-year-old Pedrosa is just eleven points behind Rossi in second. The Spaniard is the only driver to have finished in the top four of every race this season and knows he can beat Rossi after coming from behind to finish above him as Championship runner-up last season, taking 123 points in the last nine compared to Rossi's 77. A repeat of those showings would see Pedrosa easily leapfrog the Italian. It took Pedrosa three years to win the 125cc Championship; could he repeat the feat in MotoGP?

All Rossi's worst tracks are yet to come

Rossi is fancied at the Dutch Grand Prix this weekend after winning it in four of the last six years, but then it's all downhill for him after that. Indianapolis is new but the other eight races in the final half of the season were on the calendar last year and Rossi won none of them, with Australia providing his only podium. Some of the worst for Rossi include America (never won), Australia (winless in two years), Valencia (winless in three), Japan (winless in four) and San Marino, where he retired on his debut there last year.

Finishing strongly was never Rossi's strong point

Rossi has rarely finished the season as well as he starts it, which is why his current lead doesn't count for much with Pedrosa breathing down his neck. At his 2002 championship-winning best he went from ten wins in the first 12 races to just one in the final four. His last title win in 2005 saw him win 11 of the first 15 then fail to win either of the final two. Since his era of domination ended his finishes have become worse, winning none of his final four in 2006 or 2007.

Comments (2)

1. frogdandy104 | 28 September 2008

   having humble pie fo dindins, i guess?

2. seamus | 29 September 2008

   what a load o'shite!