Spanish Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo can come good on his home patch

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 12 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Trent Burton talks us through the previous race and looks ahead to the Spanish Moto GP where he expects Jorge Lorenzo to pip rivals Valentino Rossi and Casey Stoner to the finishing line.

This weekend we're back to Spain for Round Six of the 2009 MotoGP season.

Previously in MotoGP

Mugello provided the best race of the season a fortnight ago as Casey Stoner ended Valentino Rossi's seven year winning streak. Stoner described his win as "The one I really wanted," while a visibly disappointed Rossi had to settle for third, once again beaten by his team-mate Jorge Lorenzo. The championship is still close at the top between those three with Dani Pedrosa falling back after a crash resulting in a hip injury that will be severely tested this weekend.

The Circuit: Catalunya

Much like Mugello, Catalunya is a fast flowing circuit that is a favourite of many riders. It's a track that has more than one way around it with a variety of quick lines available which often results in great racing with plenty of overtaking opportunities. Rossi hasn't finished off the podium here for twelve years, with eight wins included in that run. The last two years however, have seen Pedrosa and Stoner victorious.

Pedrosa and Lorenzo are both Barcelona lads and will be all out in front of their home crowd. Lorenzo will be particularly keen having missed the race last year through injury. He'll be making his Catalunya debut in his beloved Barcelona FC's colours to celebrate their Champions League win from a couple of weeks ago.

The Championship Contenders

Rossi took control of Friday's session, equaling the lap record. Given his tendency to bounce back from disappointing races, and his record here, he's currently the [2.76] favourite and that's remarkably good value in my book.

Second quickest on Friday was Lorenzo. He has struggled here in the lower classes but will be keen to erase the memories of last year. He is oozing confidence at the moment and at [3.4] for the win, in my eyes represents slightly better value on offer than the aforementioned Rossi.

Surprisingly, championship leader Stoner was off the pace on Friday and had a small crash towards the end of the session. He still ran third but at half a second off the two Yamahas he has some work to do. He's [4.1] to win in Spain.

The Pursuing Pack

The race win should be fought out between the top three with Pedrosa's injuries set to trouble him this weekend. He's expected to ride with more painkillers in him than your local Boots. The usual suspects of Dovizioso and Capirossi have been fast and may challenge for the podium. At [6.0] for a Top 3, Dovizioso in particular is worth keeping an eye on.

But I'm going to go with a roughie this week. Nicky Hayden has looked set to be the latest superstar baffled by the Ducati but his race pace before mechanical problems in Mugello was very encouraging. This week the Ducatis have been loaded with completely new settings from recent tests and he has taken to them immediately, running sixth on Friday. I would expect some long odds to show up for a Top 6 result and if they do, I'll be taking those. And as for a small wager at [10.0] for a podium, well, stranger things have happened.

The Last Word

Thankfully, Barcelona looks like giving us a fully dry weekend leaving this, like most GPs this year, a very open race. Expect it close at the front. I'm going with Lorenzo to take a sensational home win from team-mate Rossi, with Stoner back in third.