San Marino Moto GP Betting: Stoner bids to fight back in region where Rossi is God

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 29 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Valentino Rossi will be keen to win on home territory but with nothing to lose, Casey Stoner will go all out for the win, says Trent Burton.

The championship is by no means over just yet but after Brno it seems the engraver might be down to choosing what font to put 'Valentino Rossi' on the trophy in.

Casey Stoner couldn't have chosen a worse time to record his first DNF since 2006 and his first ever since joining Ducati. His crash last round, and Rossi's subsequent win, has left the defending champ 50 points in a rear of Valentino for whom an eighth world championship now seems a mere formality. Stoner has said that chasing down a 50 point lead to most riders in six races would be within in his capabilities, but went on to acknowledge that we're not talking about 'most riders.' This is Valentino Rossi. And it might just be bordering on the impossible.

With that in mind, we head to the Misano track for the San Marino MotoGP this weekend. This circuit made it's return to the calendar last year after over a decade's absence. Stoner dominated for the win around the twisty and bumpy track as Rossi retired, virtually sealing Stoner's title. This time the roles are reversed and Stoner will be going all out for the win with nothing to lose. He is a clear favourite at [1.87] and his lap times on Friday (Close to half a second ahead of the field) suggest that is very much warranted.

Ducati fans will be out in force with the factory just down the road in Bologna but they'll be battling for space in the stands with the Rossi mob. Misano is situated just 15 km from Rossi's hometown in Tavullia so he will be keen to win for the locals who hold the Italian up as a God in the region.

A win here would also move The Doctor onto 68 Premier Class GP wins, thus equally the record held by legend Giacomo Agostini who is expected to be present this weekend. Those factors alone mean Rossi won't just be out to protect his title lead but rather be desperate for the win. Combined with him second on the sheets on Friday and I am a little surprised to see Valentino at 3.1 for the win currently. At that price it's well worth a look.

The Italian and the Aussie have dominated for the last few races and it's hard to see who could challenge them this weekend. The next closest in the markets for the win is Dani Pedrosa at 16.0 but he still seems to be struggling a little with the after effects of the injuries he sustained in Germany. The biggest factor however may well again prove to be tyres.

Michelin have been so far off the boil in the last few rounds it has bordered on embarrassing. Their highest placed rider last time out was ninth, and their top riders such as Pedrosa and Colin Edwards failed to crack the top ten. It seems they have got their finger out for this weekend though with Edwards and Jorge Lorenzo at the pointy end on Friday afternoon so come Sunday hopefully we'll see those guys back up the front battling for the podium as they should be.

The best bet for a podium result on the weekend might well sit with the two Rizla Suzuki boys, Chris Vermeulen and Loris Capirossi. Suzuki are on a run of three straight top three finishes and placed second and third here last year. With both riders on the verge of signing contract extensions for next season a good result here should see pen hit paper by Monday. Both riders sat top six at the end of Friday, and at 5.0 each for a podium result, the boys in blue are worth a punt.

It's amazing what can happen when people are riding for their jobs. No-one would've predicted Toni Elias returning to the dais last round, and even less that no-one would've put Ant West as coming in 5th but with both riders perilously close to MotoGP unemployment, they found something extra. It's hard to see them repeating that form in Misano, especially given their Friday times, but then, everyone said that in Brno too.

Let's just hope that we get a battle as good as that we saw in the US and the one that was brewing in Brno, but this time one that goes flag to flag. If it comes down the final few laps I think the championship factor has to enter Valentino's mind and for that reason, I'm backing Casey to wind up with the 25 points on Sunday afternoon.