Moto GP / Trent Burton / 03 September 2011 /

In years gone by we'd be looking at Valentino Rossi to cruise this on his home circuit. But his bike is a mess and at the current prices we need to keep faith that Casey Stoner's superb run of wins continues.

Last week in Indy Casey Stoner extended his championship lead by taking his 37th career victory in relatively easy fashion. This weekend, in Misano, victory number 38 looks like it might be a little more tricky.

After Friday's practice half a second separated the top five riders rather than the usual story of it being Stoner and the rest. His man title rival, Jorge Lorenzo, led the charge finishing fastest, albeit just seven thousandths of a second ahead. This is a race Lorenzo must win. Not just to get his championship back on track but also to save some face. He's finished off the podium in the last two and he's far from being a happy bunny.

It's a track that he has admitted to not liking and that's reflected by the fact that he's never won a MotoGP race here. It's a pretty even circuit in that parts will really suit the Yamaha and parts will suit the Honda much better. Lorenzo hasn't won a race now since the first week of July so he'll be gunning for it on Sunday. [3.85] could be the best value bet of the weekend based on Friday... but it will take every ounce of everything the Spaniard's got to stop his Australian rival.

Stoner said after Friday he had plenty of room to improve, which is worrying for Lorenzo when he's already so close. Lorenzo will improve his pace as well but you get the feeling Stoner has more in the tank at this point. He really has a case of the Seb Vettels about him this year in that it will take a monster effort from someone each week to be able to stop him. He's never won four races in a row in his career and he's got his work cut out to overcome that stat on Sunday. I expect him to be challenged at Misano much more than he has been of late, but at [2.34] I just can't not back the Honda man.

Dani Pedrosa and Ben Spies, podium men at Indy, are both also on the pace here. I think we'll see the two of them, along with Andrea Dovizioso and Marco Simoncelli stage a pretty good fight for that final podium spot. Pedrosa is probably the only one who could realistically challenge for the win though. He won comfortably here last year and at [4.2] is worth a punt for an upset should Stoner decide not to risk it or Lorenzo hits tyre troubles for the third race on the bounce. Podium wise, Spies, at [2.36] is the best bet. He should get the better of local boys Dovi and Marco and the only real value in Dani is for the win.

Misano is a track that is just down the road from Valentino Rossi's house. Fans from his home town literally walk to the circuit on race day in droves to cheer on their icon. The whole town is painted yellow and there's even a cardboard cutout of Rossi in the window at the church. Seriously. Their loyalty will still bring them out on Sunday but they may be stopping at the church on route this year to ask for a quick favour. The situation at Ducati is now diabolical. The bike hasn't been right for the last couple of years but Stoner still managed three wins on it last year yet in 2011 the red bikes have been nothing short of embarrassing. Rossi really needs a moral boosting result here. I've never seen the nine-time champ so disheartened. He's a definite podium lay bet and (this is extremely odd to type at his home race) most likely even a lay bet for the top six.

Based on Friday's times, and the excellent Italian weather forecast, we should be in for a great race on Sunday. Here's hoping Lorenzo and co can keep up the pressure and try to avert another Stoner runaway.

Recommended bets

Back Casey Stoner for the win at [2.34]
Lay Andrea Dovizioso for the podium at [3.8]

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