Qatar MotoGP Betting: Stoner to keep on rolling

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 07 April 2012 /

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Casey Stoner - will you be backing the favourite this weekend?

"Reigning champion Casey Stoner's record at Qatar is imposing to say the least. He's won here five times in his career including four of the last five."

The kings of two-wheeled motorsport start their season in the desert on Sunday with Casey Stoner the odds-on favourite, but could tyre issues catch the Aussie out? Trent Burton has the latest in his betting preview for the Qater MotoGP

All the posturing stops this weekend as the floodlights of Qatar get flicked on and the 2012 MotoGP season is officially under way. This year the bikes are up from 800cc to 1000cc and nine of the 21-strong field are on the new semi-prototype CRT bikes. But it may be a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Reigning champion Casey Stoner's record at Qatar is imposing to say the least. He's won here five times in his career including four of the last five. He would've been fastest in every session here as well, if not for being blocked on his final quick lap. So when you factor in his pre-season domination as well he's an obvious [1.77] favourite to win on Sunday night. Make no mistake he's the definite favourite, and the safest bet if that's what you're after, but I do think that's a little on the short side. I'd like to see him closer to [2.0] but he's still a worth a punt anywhere near this.

Jorge Lorenzo at [3.25] is easily the best value bet of the weekend. He's been very consistent over the weekend, quickest on Friday night and Stoner's advantage hasn't been one of pure intimidation. But the key thing is going to be how both of them fair over the full distance. Stoner has always been able to pull a one lap flyer out of the bag when it's needed, but the Honda has been plagued with front end chatter problems this weekend. It started the weekend near unridable according to Casey and now they've managed to get it down to a manageable level. But it's still there.

Over a full race that could be a problem. With the new Bridgestone tyres this year, the life of the rubber is going to be a much bigger issue. This year's tyres get up to temperature much quicker, but the pay-off of that is that they are going to degrade much more over 30-odd laps as well. And with added chatter that degradation is going to be magnified. The question is, by how much? The Honda guys aren't going to find that out until about two thirds of the way through Sunday's race.

There's a chance it won't affect things anywhere near enough to stop Stoner romping off for the win, but if they do, which to be honest is much more likely, he's going to have a fight with Jorge on his hands. That's not to say he won't still win it in a dog fight but it's that great unknown that leads me to think that Stoner's price should be a little bigger than it currently is. Nevertheless, he is very difficult to oppose on this track and he is still my main selection.

Beyond the big two, the final podium spot is a genuine raffle. Ben Spies, Andrea Doviozoso, Cal Crutchlow, Dani Pedrosa and even Valentino Rossi or Nicky Hayden all have genuine claim to it. This year's championship is going to be hard and fast between the rest of the field, no question. Both Spies and Pedrosa have had crashes this weekend but still must be the favourites, being the other two key factory boys but with both around [1.5] in an illiquid market, it's of little value when it's so open for third. I think the best bet has to be Dovi at [5.1]. He's always done well at Qatar and he'd absolutely love to stick it to Honda after being dumped last year but getting on the podium in his first race for Yamaha. It's a tall order, but he's been consistent and at over 4-1 he's the best value to take that final spot on the steps.

The BBC will be screening MotoGP in HD this year and there's no better spectacle to kick that off than the bikes under the lights. Tuning in there's every chance you'll see Stoner get his title defence under way in imperious fashion, but it's a lot more likely in my opinion that he's going to have a bit of a fight on his hands.

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