Moto GP / Trent Burton / 19 July 2008 /

Trent Burton on Sunday's big one as the two-wheeled crew head to the US

It's not often that you can say we're headed to a track where Valentino Rossi has never recorded a victory, but that is the case this week as the MotoGP circus rolls into the United States. In the three times he's visited the Laguna Seca circuit his best result is a third and he'd struggle to find a better time to record a maiden US win than right now.

To call last weekend's round in Germany a wet race would be like calling Everest a big hill. On an already soaked track, it bucketed down for the first handful of laps where well known wet weather hater Dani Pedrosa pulled out a seven second lead. He was going at such a rate of knots it was hard to believe that he could keep the Repsol Honda upright.

Unfortunately for the Spaniard, he couldn't. But such was Pedrosa's early pace that the man in second place at the time, Casey Stoner, was ready to raise the white flag after just a few laps: "I saw Dani ride off into the distance and I thought 'fair play' - there was no way I could keep that pace in those conditions at that time," said the reigning champ after the race.

"We definitely needed a bit more time to get the tyres up to temperature and Dani just kept edging away, but then after a few laps I was coming down the main straight and I could see his bike bouncing around in the gravel at turn one."

Pushing too hard too early saw Pedrosa lose the front end and crash heavily, fracturing his wrist, three fingers and ankle. From that point on, it was all Casey as he romped away to his third straight victory from his fourth straight pole position.

By virtue of Pedrosa's crash, and Rossi coming home for second, the Italian took back the lead in the championship by 16 points from the Honda pilot.

Rossi may have regained that lead, but he is only too aware that in the last three races Stoner has clawed back a massive 30 points to be now just 20 behind him and only four behind Pedrosa. It seems Vale is getting a little worried and he is now second favourite for the title at [2.32] to Stoner's [2.04]. For so many reasons, not least to regain some sort of psychological advantage, he has to beat Stoner in Laguna. But for so many other reasons, I really can't see how he's going to do it.

Laguna Seca is a highly technical circuit where each lap is a complete lap. Unlike Donington Park - where the track can basically be split up into a few sections - if you get one corner wrong at Laguna you're done for. It also features one of the most famous corners in all of motorsport, the Corkscrew, a super quick downhill chicane. Friday's sessions suggest it'll suit the Bridgestone tyres. Twelve months ago in the Californian sun Stoner won every practice session, taking pole, the race win and the fastest lap. And at [1.62] for the win, he is backable to do it again.

Rossi is the longest odds we've seen for the win for a long time at [5.2] which is a testament to Stoner's form. Confidence and rhythm are such a big things in motorsport and Stoner has bucketfuls of both at present. Rossi on the other hand, may be confident in his bike, his tyres and certainly himself, but he's talking of improvement, but sadly little of how. You don't become a seven time world champion for nothing and you can guarantee Rossi will be throwing everything he can at the Aussie come Sunday and you'd be mad not to have a punt on him at those odds. Because the thing is, the Yamaha-Rossi combo is far from slow. At race pace he is easily lapping a couple of tenths under the lap records of previous years, it is just that Stoner is doing it by close to a full second at times. It is, quite simply, astonishing. All it takes is one mistake ... it's just that he doesn't look anywhere near making one right now.

Outside of Stoner and Rossi, it's worth taking a look at who could pull of a surprise. The locals will be keen to impress and Nicky Hayden was one of the few Michelin runners to put in a cluster of good laps and as a result sits second behind Stoner. Having just signed a new contract with the Tech 3 team for 2009, Colin Edwards will be hoping for a podium to celebrate and is currently [4.0] to do so but has struggled outside the top ten. Hayden however, desperate to put recent disappointments behind him is [3.2] for a top-three result that may well be the best bet for some local joy. That said, some good odds should be available in the 'Any Other Rider' market for a podium finish for US wild card rider Ben Spies on the Suzuki. He may only have one GP under his belt where he subbed for Loris Capirossi at Donington, but he knows Laguna like the back of his hand and has been quick so far.

His team-mate Chris Vermeulen always goes well at Laguna with a couple of wins at World SBK level and a pole and second in MotoGP. He was top five all day, in the dry I hasten to add, and at [3.5] for back-to-back podiums is good value. Pedrosa's injuries are clearly having a massive effect on the championship-chasing Spaniard as he is languishing down the bottom of the sheets a number of seconds off the leaders and offers value only in a lay from some of the early bets.

Of the three 250cc graduates, bare in mind this is the first time they have seen this circuit as the lower cylinder classes don't make the journey stateside. Alex De Angelis and Andrea Dovizioso seem to have adapted to the circuit the quickest and with De Angelis' recent form, and the fact he's a Bridgestone runner, anything over [6.0] for the podium is a good value bet.

Remember that due to the time difference to the USA the race will be on live at 21:45 in the UK this Sunday evening so should make some great prime time viewing. If you've never seen a gaggle of MotoGP bikes tear through the Corkscrew on the first lap, you really are missing one of sport's great spectacles. So as you tune keep an eye over the win market just in case something happens to Stoner because then there'll be an avalanche to get on Rossi at his longer odds before they tumble. But that it is the biggest if in MotoGP right now. If the race was run at the pace the guys turned in during Friday's sessions he'd win it by 25 seconds. That's not a typo. 25 seconds. Give the man the trophy.

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