Moto GP / Trent Burton / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

After a month off, we're back on track for Round 14 of the MotoGP Championship in Portugal. Trent Burton selects the best bets...

"Valentino is currently at [2.14] for a Sunday victory and as I always say, anything over [2.0] is great value for the Italian."

Previously in MotoGP

The last round in San Marino was a bit of a cakewalk for Valentino Rossi as he extended his championship lead back out to 30 points. However, the real excitement has all happened after the flag.

Wrists have been slapped over a few Misano incidents both on and off the track while as suspected Yamaha announced Ben Spies will be joining MotoGP in 2010 with the Tech 3 Team. This left Brit James Toseland out of a job so he'll be moving back to World Superbikes next year. Randy DePuniet and Mika Kallio have also both inked new 2010 deals to stay with their current teams. But the big news in the paddock at Portugal has been that which puts to an end all the hype, speculation and rumours of the last three months. Casey Stoner is back.

The Circuit: Estoril

Estoril may feature one of the longest straights on the calendar but it is also has the slowest average lap speed of the year with a lot of very tight and twisty sections. Jorge Lorenzo took his maiden win here last year and will be keen to repeat that to bridge the gap to Rossi, a five time Estoril winner.

Rossi vs Lorenzo

Valentino is currently at [2.14] for a Sunday victory and as I always say, anything over [2.0] is great value for the Italian. He is a simply a chance to win at every single circuit, more so at places like this where he has had so much past success. But I'm a lot more tempted by the 3.3 on offer for his team-mate this weekend. Lorenzo's pace on Friday was spellbinding and he really needs to adopt a win it or bin it attitude from here on if he is to have any chance at the title. If he can break Rossi early in the race then Valentino won't be taking any big risks to stay with him when opting for a solid second will still have him leaving Portugal with a 25 point cushion.

The Pursuing Pack

The big question of the weekend is linked in with the biggest story of it. Just how fit is Stoner? He was instantly back amongst the leaders on his first Friday run, coming in fourth and well in touch, but one lap bursts haven't been his problem, even at the height of his illness.

How will he fare over full race distance? His fitness may be down, but his pace certainly won't be and if it rains, as it's tipped to on Sunday, that will only play into the Ducati rider's hands. The [10.0] for a race win might be a step too far for the Aussie, but anything over [2.0] for a podium is well and truly worth the punt. With all the focus on Stoner's return and the two Yamaha's battling for the title, don't discount Dani Pedrosa either.

Odds of [6.4] for a win is worth a look but in my book, [1.63] for a podium is far too short given Stoner's back.

The Last Word

Estoril has produced a few classic races over the years so here's hoping for another on Sunday. I think Lorenzo can win it back to back, followed home by Rossi and the returning Stoner.

Tags: Casey Stoner, Moto GP, Portuguese Grand Prix, Trent Burton, Valentino Rossi