Moto GP / Trent Burton / 06 November 2009 / Leave a comment

With the title decided we move to Valencia for the season finale this weekend. Trent Burton provides the latest news and betting prospects

"Dani Pedrosa has to prove he is more than just a front runner and is a genuine title challenger. He’s generally quick here and if he can qualify well will almost certainly lead early. At [6.4] to win he’s a very good price and definitely the man to watch."

Last Time in MotoGP
Michael Schumacher is a household name. A motorsport superstar who needs no introduction. A man who won seven world championships during his career. Last weekend, in Malaysia, Valentino Rossi won his ninth. After a championship victory one might see a pleased Schumacher raise a clenched fist to the sky. Rossi, this time round, dressed up a chicken and then laid a giant egg of his own. Forget MotoGP, whenever Valentino decides to hang up his helmet, world sport in general will be a much poorer place.
So while congratulations are in order for The Doctor, we musn't lose sight in Sepang of Casey Stoner winning the race by the best part of a week and Dani Pedrosa recording his first ever wet weather podium.

Track Preview
The traditional final race of the year at Valencia is an odd one. In the ten years we've been coming to the Ricardo Tormo circuit only Rossi has won more than once having taken two wins. It's very much not a track he likes. The last of those wins came way back in 2004. He crashed here in 2006 and thus lost the championship to Nicky Hayden and was a distant third last year behind Stoner and Pedrosa. It's a slow circuit with few opportunities to pass so if you can make a break early it's often plain sailing for an early leader.

The Race
With the championship over, Rossi doesn't need to win this weekend. Stoner has well and truly proved he is a major force once again. Jorge Lorenzo has shown this year he is now a definite championship contender. Leaving the one man who really does have a point to prove this weekend as local boy Pedrosa. He's won at least two races each of his three years in MotoGP but has only one victory so far in 2009. He's finished the past four GPs on the podium but has never looked like challenging for the win and now the pressure is really on him going into next year. He has to prove he is more than just a front runner and is a genuine title challenger. He's generally quick here and if he can qualify well will almost certainly lead early. At [6.4] to win he's a very good price and definitely the man to watch.
Due to the fact he has never got on with Valencia, and the title is wrapped up, Rossi is at the longest odds we've seen him all year. At [3.55] to win he's well worth a bet simply for the fact that he's Valentino Rossi and is more than capable of winning on any day, anywhere.
Jorge Lorenzo would actually be a surprise winner this weekend as indicated by his [4.3] price. He's been a little off the pace the last few weeks and with the championship now gone, one gets the feeling that extra percent of motivation for this last GP has also.
But on Friday, it was the same guy blowing everyone into the weeds as he has done ever since he got back. There's been 75 points on offer since Stoner's return and he's taken 70 of them. Half a second quicker on Friday, he was throwing the Ducati around today like he was fighting for the title. He's the favourite at [2.48] and I just can't see past him stamping his authority on this weekend and his early favoritism for the title in 2010.
It'll be Brit James Toseland's last MotoGP ride as well before he returns to Superbikes next year so let's hope can finish on a relative high. Sadly though I just can't find any value in him even for a Top 6 bet.

The Last Word
It's been a great year and full congratulations to Valentino Rossi on his ninth title. There's been some spectacular races in 2009 (If you missed the epic battle of Catalunya, make sure you tune in for one of the season review shows) and let's hope we get a good send off on Sunday. I'm going for a Stoner win from Pedrosa and Rossi. See you all in 2010.

Tags: Dani Pedrosa, MotoGP, Valentino Rossi