Moto GP Season Betting Preview: Stoner to pip Rossi

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 03 April 2010 /

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Casey Stoner has every chance of wrestling back his title from Valentino Rossi this season

"Rossi is without question the best rider on the grid, but, (and I’ll probably get hate mail for this), Stoner is hands down the quickest. If he can get it all together for a trouble-free year, something’s that’s been missing for the last two seasons, he’s my tip for his second championship."

Trent Burton looks ahead to the 2009/10 Moto GP season which he's expecting to be an absolute cracker and where based on what we've seen so far in testing, Casey Stoner looks the best bet.

After the longest off-season I can remember, the 2010 season is now just a week away from getting started. So what better time to take a look at some early form for a 2010 World Champion punt.

2009 was all about the aliens. Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa and Casey Stoner. Between the four of them, they won all but one race and locked up 44 of the 51 podium results last year. 2010 is already looking to be a much tougher challenge.

Pre-season testing has been dominated by two men - Rossi and Stoner. They've finished first and second in all six tests, Rossi is leading five to one but the margins have all been minimal. As such, we're seeing Rossi as the early favourite for the title at [2.58], which looks a pretty solid bet. He's quick as always, more determined than ever to prove he's still top dog and the Yamaha is still the best bike on the grid. There's no reason why the "veteran" Italian can't notch up an historic tenth world title.

Aussie Stoner is second favourite at [3.05] which is an absolutely brilliant price for my mind. I've already snapped up a bunch of it. He starts the year healthy and lactose free (the problem that derailed his season last year) and the new Ducati is much improved as evidenced by his and team-mate Nicky Hayden's massively improved pace. He's also looking more relaxed and laid-back than I've ever seen him. It's like he's a new man. All of which is bad news for his rivals. Rossi is without question the best rider on the grid, but, (and I'll probably get hate mail for this), Stoner is hands down the quickest. If he can get it all together for a trouble-free year, something's that's been missing for the last two seasons, he's my tip for his second championship.

Lorenzo will be quick and he'll win races, that much is certain. But how long he takes to recover from a broken hand sustained recently will tell the tale of his title hopes. If he's on it from round one, he's a definite threat, but I think it might take a few rounds myself. It will also be his first year where he'll be completely on his own. He may be Rossi's 'team-mate' but there's no sharing of data, and not a lot of love lost either, in that garage. As such, his price of [6.4] might look long but I just don't think he's ready to step out of Rossi's shadow just yet.

Pedrosa is [15.0] and the long shot of the Big 4 for the title. I dare say that even at that price, he's a bit short. He hasn't got to grips with the new Honda and it's new Ohlins suspension and has really struggled, finishing the last test down in 13th. Big things were expected for 2010 as he started the year injury-free for the first time in ages, but once again it looks like another good-but-not-great year for the Spaniard. He's not going to languish about outside the top ten for long and he'll pop up for a win here and there but unless there's some epic disaster with the other three, I can't see him cracking the top three in the championship. He might even struggle to hang onto fourth.

Because there could just well be a new alien in town. My prediction is Rookie Texan Ben Spies will finish the year fourth. He is the next big thing. His pace in early season testing has been nothing short of amazing. Yes, he's on a satellite bike and as such he may fade towards the end of the year as the factory bikes get all the trick new bits, but at the moment at least, a satellite Yamaha is still better than a factory Honda. As he showed by winning last year's Superbike title at his first attempt, new tracks and a new bike don't phase him. He's [14.0] for the title, and he won't win it, but it's telling he's shorter in price than Pedrosa.

All in all I think this is going to be the best season in ages and I can't wait for it to get started on April 11 in Qatar. I'll be here with all my tips throughout the year and my new 'lighter look' at MotoGP blog is now live for this season at trunkman.co.uk See you in a week when the bikes roar into life under the lights in the desert.

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