Moto GP / Trent Burton / 17 October 2009 / Leave a comment

The Australian GP is always a season highlight and, with the Championship entering end game, this year's race should be no exception. Trent Burton is Down Under to select the best bets...

"The Stoner factor has driven Rossi’s win price up to a sensational [2.46]. Rossi just needs to beat Lorenzo and not risk anything going for the win, but that doesn’t mean if there’s a chance to take it, he won’t have a go."

Last Time in MotoGP

It's hard to remember a time that Valentino Rossi was so routinely beaten as he was in Estoril. The fact that it was by his team-mate, and the man chasing him in the championship, Jorge Lorenzo, only made it more significant. The Spaniard has now cut Rossi's lead to 18 points with three races remaining. Estoril also saw a stunning return by Casey Stoner. A second place after 10 weeks away showed very clearly to all and sundry that the Australian Ducati pilot has lost none of his speed.

Track Preview

There's little doubt that Phillip Island is a highlight of the season. One of the most picturesque circuits, it is also one of the fastest. Weather often plays a part here, not just the threat of rain, but cool oceanside conditions can make a lack of grip a huge issue and a certain trap for young players. However, this is a favourite track of all the rider's, not least Valentino Rossi and hometown hero Casey Stoner. Rossi has taken numerous victories here while Stoner has triumphed by a massive margin for the past two seasons.

Rossi vs Lorenzo

Even if Lorenzo wins the remaining three races and Rossi picks up three second places, it wouldn't be enough to snatch the title away from the eight time champion. So Lorenzo just needs to go all out. With that in mind, [4.5] for the win might seem like a fantastic price for the win, and it is, but it's worth keeping in mind that he has never got on especially well with Phillip Island. He's been a little off the pace so far this weekend already and I just can't have him for the win. Rossi on the other hand will be keen for a quick revenge. He led on Friday was up there in changing conditions this morning at one of his pet circuits. The Casey Stoner factor here has driven Rossi's win price up to [2.46] - sensational value. Rossi just needs to beat Lorenzo and not risk anything going for the win but that doesn't mean if there's a chance to take it, he won't have a go.

The Pursuing Pack

Dani Pedrosa will be quick as usual but is just too long at [10.0] for a win. Some other names challenge for a podium at a track that is a great equaliser so keep an eye on the Top 3 prices of people like Nicky Hayden and Colin Edwards. But the big factor this weekend will be Stoner. So dominate here in the past, he's back, fit and in front of his admirers. Phillip Island has a lot of places to rest and coupled with the cooler temperatures his fatigue issues, which already seemed behind him in Estoril regardless, definitely shouldn't pose a problem this round either. At [3.6] for the win, just one race after making his comeback, Stoner is hands down the bet of the round.

The Last Word

Phillip Island usually produces some epic racing so make sure you watch the race - remember the time difference - first thing Sunday morning. I am going to go out on a limb a little and suggest a home win for Stoner from Rossi and Lorenzo.

Tags: Australian Moto GP, Casey Stoner, Daniel Pedrosa, Moto GP Betting Odds, Trent burton, Valentino Rossi