Moto GP Betting Preview: Rossi feels the pressure in San Marino

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 04 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"A good shot for another podium might be Alex De Angelis. He's been on the pace like never before since losing his job and following a second spot in Indy he’s back amongst the leaders here today. The [4.6] for a podium is well worth a look."

After the madness of Indy it's off to San Marino this week for Round 13 of the MotoGP season. Trent Burton selects the best bets...

Previously in MotoGP

Last week I said that Valentino Rossi was pretty much unbackable for the title. Obviously he doesn't read this column. An uncharacteristic crash and non-finish for the Italian, coupled with a win for his team-mate Jorge Lorenzo sees his lead in the championship halved to 25 points with five rounds to go. Rossi is still a huge favourite at [1.34] but more tellingly, Lorenzo is into [4.7]. Before Indy, Jorge said the title was "impossible." On Sunday night he declared it now merely "difficult." Dani Pedrosa also showed great pace despite a race fall and Nicky Hayden broke his Ducati podium duck and was rewarded yesterday with an extended contract for 2010.

The Circuit: Misano

Just five miles from Rossi's hometown the pressure on him will be intense, especially after last week. The track is a little stop-start with a lot of slow turns, the bulk of those being right-handers.

Rossi vs Lorenzo

This championship now has all the hallmarks of a heavyweight title bought. Rossi may have the upper hand and every chance to land a knock out blow this week but, Lorenzo just won't stay down. He doesn't know when he's beaten and keeps on hitting. Doubts surround whether Rossi will take it easier this week to protect his lead. His price is a little longer than usual, and the gap to Lorenzo somewhat less.

He is a narrow favourite at [2.1] and was quickest in Friday's session. But Rossi never rides for second and with 95% of the crowd die-hard Doctor fans spurring him on that's a very good price for victory. Lorenzo sits a little adrift at [2.94]. He was only just behind Rossi on Friday and his times a little more consistent overall. Like Rossi, his price is one with a lot of value in it.

The Pursuing Pack

The usual suspects will be keeping the Fiat Yamaha lads honest. Dani Pedrosa, despite an engine blow up on Friday, will be up there but with what's at stake for the other two, I'd be looking for something a little longer than [4.6] before I took a punt on him for the win. A good shot for another podium might be Alex De Angelis at his home GP. He has been on the pace like never before since losing his job and following a second spot in Indy he's back amongst the leaders here today. 4.6 for a podium is well worth a look.

The Last Word

No-one handles pressure like Valentino Rossi and there is potentially more on him this weekend than there has been in a long time. Psychologically, a win here would deal a huge blow to Lorenzo. But should Lorenzo triumph, even if Rossi is second, the championship lead would be down to just twenty and Jorge must believe he can win it all. Common sense, history, experience and occasion suggests these are situations Rossi lives for and he should win on Sunday. But something in me just feels like there's a change in the wind this weekend. I'm tipping Lorenzo in an epic battle from Rossi and Pedrosa.