Moto GP / Trent Burton / 01 May 2009 / Leave a comment

This weekend it's off to Spain for Round Three of the 2009 MotoGP season. Trent Burton picks the best bets.

Previously in MotoGP

If anyone tells you they picked the Top Six, in order, from last week's round, don't lend them any money because they're more than likely a liar. The Motegi race was as good an example as any that '09 is shaping up to be a truly thrilling and unpredictable season which should make the racing exciting and the markets lively.

No-one could have imagined that Jorge Lorenzo would batter his team-mate Valentino Rossi for the win. Or that Casey Stoner would have brake issues that would seem him finish fourth. Or that an injured Dani Pedrosa on an underperforming Honda could get on the podium. Or least of all, that Marco Melandri, on a Kawasaki made out of spare parts and straw could come home a brilliant sixth. This week is shaping as open as we've seen in a while.

The Circuit: Jerez

Jerez is one of the year's highlights. A massive and hugely passionate crowd always pack Jerez to the rafters for the first of the European rounds. The track itself is a nice combination of quick kinks and tight turns which tend to suit the more nimble bikes like the Yamaha's of Rossi and Lorenzo. Rossi has an amazing record here including seven wins while on the other hand, this is Stoner's bogey track. The Aussie has never made the podium here but a strong showing in the Jerez winter tests should fill him with confidence.

Rossi vs Stoner

For this race in particular it's hard to see how Stoner can beat Rossi. After Rossi was quickest by a good margin in Friday practice, Stoner has drifted to [3.3] for the win which is the longest he's been for sometime. Rossi is still presently excellent value at [2.4]. He has a massive point to prove as he's been beaten by first Stoner and then his team-mate this year and is desperate to open his winning account. But the best value in the win market this weekend might come from somewhere else.

The Pursuing Pack

Lorenzo's performance last week was brilliant and at his home track, on form and on a bike suited to Jerez his win price of [5.3] represents some of the best value I've seen in MotoGP this year and is well worth a punt. Fourth quickest on Friday, I will expect him to push Valentino hard on Sunday in front of his adoring fans.

An upset victory doesn't look on the cards, although I said that last week, despite some strong showings today from the likes of Capirossi, Dovizioso and Edwards. Pedrosa won here last year but, despite his great third last week, I don't think either he or the Honda are ready for a win just yet. As we get closer to race time I would expect to find some value in the top three market for any of these riders given Stoner's historic struggles around this track.

The Last Word

Thankfully, we have a perfect forecast for the whole weekend in Spain after the wet weather nightmares of late. I think we will see an epic battle between the two Fiat Yamaha guys this week. The veteran Rossi and the young charger Lorenzo. I'm tipping Rossi for his first win of 2009 from the hometown hero Lorenzo and Casey Stoner to break his Jerez podium duck to bring the Ducati home third.