Moto GP / Trent Burton / 15 May 2009 / Leave a comment

This week we're in France for Round Four of the 2009 MotoGP season... Trent Burton reports...

Previously in MotoGP

As expected, Valentino Rossi became the third different winner in the first three races last time out in Jerez but the real interest lay elsewhere. Most people, myself included, predicted big things from Jorge Lorenzo and he looked likely to deliver after putting his Yamaha on pole before struggling for pace and eventually crashing out. His compatriot Dani Pedrosa, however, put in another impressive run to second while Casey Stoner registered his first ever podium at Jerez.

The Circuit: Le Mans

The famous French circuit is a classic 'stop-and-go' layout for MotoGP featuring lots of hard braking and quick accelerating points. It can be tricky and is generally not one of the favourite stops on the calendar for most riders. Four current riders have tasted victory here in the past, not least last year's victor Rossi with three to his name. Le Mans is also one of just four tracks where Ducati are yet to notch up a win.

Rossi v Stoner

The stretch of tracks we visit in this part of the season are classic Valentino Rossi circuits and Stoner will really have his work cut out to top him this weekend. Stoner should consider a top three result this weekend to be a job well done as far as the championship is concerned as we move to his favourite circuits later in the year. Rossi is a deserved favourite at [2.22] despite being slower than Stoner in a rain interrupted practice on Friday so I'd consider taking that price before I would expect him to shorten with a good qualifying performance. If everything goes right for Stoner then a win is certainly possible but at [2.42] I won't be investing in him unless he drifts a little further.

The Pursuing Pack

This should be a very open race. Andrea Dovizioso and Daniel Pedrosa have both been quick on Friday as the Hondas slowly get to grips with the Bridgestones. Both ought to challenge for the podium on Sunday and Dovizioso especially is great value at [6.0] for the top three. Lorenzo will again be lurking but the one to watch this weekend, for mine, is Chris Vermeulen. The Suzukis have threatened much but delivered little so far in 2009 but that could change this weekend. He won in the wet here in 2007 and rain is again expected this weekend, but it was his dry pace on Friday that impressed most with him finishing third on the sheets. If he can keep pace with the front guys in the dry then a podium is certainly achievable and good value at [5.0]. But if the clouds do open up on race day then the rain master stands a very good chance to snatch a victory so I'll be keeping one eye on the forecast and one on his current price of [24.0] for a win. Expect that to shorten massively, and quickly, if Sunday brings rain.

The Last Word

Rossi will be hungry for the win to bring his career tally to 99 victories, so he can head to the next round, his home GP in Italy, with a shot at bringing up win number 100. That alone might just be enough to spur him on to victory. If it stays dry I'm tipping a podium of Rossi from Stoner and Dovizioso, but if it does rain then I'll be laying everyone off and backing Vermeulen here.