Moto GP Betting: Keep an eye on Vermeulen's price if the heavens open

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 16 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Trent Burton knows a thing or two about motorcycling so is worth listening to when he tells us why Valentino Rossi is a worthy favourite for Le Mans Moto GP glory and how heavy rain may improve Chris Vermeulen's chances

The 2008 MotoGP season is just four races down and already we've got four different race winners, all separated by just 25 points at the top of the championship table. In the tyre war it's two each to Bridgestone and Michelin. Manufacturers wise, Yamaha have notched up two wins, Honda one and Ducati the other. Whichever way you slice it, this year's title chase is shaping up to be one of the closest and most exciting seasons for some time. Especially when you consider that by this point last year we had Aussie Casey Stoner and his Ducati dominating 37 points clear on top of the table.

Picking a winner last year was a whole lot easier. If you wanted a near-on guaranteed return you'd pick an amount and put it on Stoner. But a year's a long time in motorsport and now Stoner, and his new teammate Marco Melandri especially, have found themselves struggling for pace while Honda and Yamaha have, as expected, fought back from the disappointment of last year. Spaniard Dani Pedrosa on the works Repsol Honda leads the charge thus far and is yet to finish off the podium in 2008. Rookie sensation, reigning 250cc champ and fellow Spaniard Jorge Lorenzo sits behind him in second with the man who needs no introduction, but let's give him one all the same - seven time world champion and MotoGP icon Valentino Rossi just a couple of points back in third. A couple of horror rounds in Jerez and Estoril find the reigning champ Stoner back in fourth scrambling for some of that winter testing form.

So as we move to round five in Le Mans last year's form card should be little to go by as Chris Vermeulen on the Suzuki took the win on a track that more resembled a lake. It's hard to see either of the Suzukis challenging for a podium this time round if it's dry, but as in so many years past at Le Mans, rain is tipped for the weekend. If the skies do open up keep an eye on wet weather supremo Vermeulen to move up and Pedrosa, a man who hates the rain, to slip backwards.

If we do get a dry race Sunday afternoon it could end up like Shanghai two weeks ago. A battle between Rossi and Pedrosa. Lorenzo, is lucky to be riding at all following his epic highside in China, from which he escaped with only a few ankle fractures. It could've been so much worse for Jorge after what was easily one the biggest crashes I've seen in many, many years.

He must be well less than 100% fit, and following another tumble in afternoon practice today, therefore may struggle to run at the front as he did in China on a circuit much more physically demanding than Shanghai, without its long straights to rest on. And while Stoner's return to the podium in China shows he's heading back towards to the pointy end again, I don't see the Ducati back and ready to challenge for their second win of the year just yet.

Aside from the Big Four, there's any number of guys who could pop up and cause a few scares in the early going. John Hopkins has been steadily improving on the Kawasaki and Marco Melandri showed last week he is starting to at last get to grips with his Ducati. Nor can last time out pole man Colin Edwards on the Tech 3 Yamaha be discounted or his consistent rookie team-mate, Brit James Toseland. My tip though, at a good price for a top three finish, is another rookie in Andrea Dovizioso. Dovi has been super quick from round one where he beat Rossi and was part of the lead group in Portugal until he crashed. And you've got to go back to 2002 in the smaller classes since he was off the steps in France. He's my sleeper.

Rossi's price of [2.8] may well drift out a little as Pedrosa's Michelin qualifers should suit Le Mans better on Saturday and his current [3.4] come in a little accordingly, but come Sunday, after a win last time out, Valentino's got the fire back in his belly and a bike and tyres he's finally happy with. So for my money, it'll be back-to-back wins this weekend for The Doctor. But just keep half an eye on the weather forecast, and therefore, a certain blue Suzuki...