Moto GP Betting: Catalunya

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 06 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Trent Burton previews this weekend's seventh championship round at Catalunya

Without question, last year's Catalunya round of MotoGP provided the race of the season. In front of 112, 600 motorcycle mad Spanish fans a race long battle saw the top three split by just four tenths of a second at the chequered flag with Casey Stoner taking the win ahead of Valentino Rossi and hometown hero Dani Pedrosa. We can expect more close racing this weekend if practice times are anything to go by.

We could've expected to throw another Spaniard into the mix for the win in the shape of rookie Jorge Lorenzo but following another big accident in Friday afternoon practice that resulted in him being stretchered off struggling to remember what happened or where he was, you have to wonder how much more the 21-year-old can take before it really starts to affect his performance. Lorenzo has an impressive podium record at the Barcelona track, but it pales in comparison to that of his Fiat Yamaha team-mate Rossi. 1996 was the last time Rossi finished off the podium in Catalunya, the scene of this weekend's seventh round of the championship. Eleven straight top three finishes, eight of those wins, across all classes, is yet another imposing statistic facing the rest of field as they attempt to stop the in-form Italian.

After another impressive display last week in Mugello, Rossi is gunning for four straight wins this year and an extension to his current twelve point championship lead. It would seem now that all those people saying Rossi was past it just a few months ago are claiming they were just joking and have moved onto picking on poor Ant West and his struggling Kawasaki.

Like Mugello, the Catalunya circuit features a host of fast flowing turns and a long front straight over a kilometre long. This track does however tend to reward the brave late brakers. Something that may not help local hero Pedrosa. Pedrosa is always a happier man when he can run at the front, ride smoothly and limit his number of required passing maneuvers. Both Stoner and Rossi on the other hand described the race long battle and constant passing and repassing display of last year as one of the most enjoyable races of the season for them.

Pedrosa's record at Catalunya is by no means bad, but it's certainly not one of his most successful tracks and he has been outpaced in the latter half of the last couple of races and was clearly discouraged yesterday when announcing that Honda's new pneumatic valve engine bike would not be ready to race as expected this weekend. All this means that again the Honda boys will be down on top end speed compared to the Yamahas and Ducatis especially. Sure, a hundred odd thousand screaming fans will help spur him on but at [3.75] he just seems too short for me to wager the win.

Following his Italian round special helmet last week (probably the best helmet design in the history of motorcycling if you ask me!), to mark the start of the Euro 2008 championships tomorrow Rossi will be running a special one off livery in the blue colours of his beloved Azzurri. He is, as expected a very short, and very warranted favourite at [2.02] and a fourth win in a row is more than likely. Given their pace on Friday both Suzukis could be worth a look at a top three finish, but for me the value is in Ducati's Casey Stoner at [8.20] for the win. Catalunya was the track where Ducati set the fastest ever top speed on a MotoGP bike and was also where they recorded their first race win back in 2003. The Aussie has been on the pace consistently since his early season difficulties and in running second to Rossi last weekend was putting in the same lap times as the Italian until a gear selection problem caused him to overshoot turn one and lose a few vital seconds. Following that he stuck in the race's fastest lap. His talk all week has been as positive as it was last year when he was belting everyone into next week. While Lorenzo has been saying the championship is over for him already, Stoner, who actually sits behind Lorenzo in the title chase, has been talking of taking it race-by-race just like last year. And we all know how that paid off.

The Spanish press may have Pedrosa fever at the moment, and he will no doubt be strong come Sunday, but by mid-race, if Rossi hasn't broken away as he has done recently, and there's a big red Ducati still in the mix, that's where my money's going.