Moto GP / Trent Burton / 30 March 2009 / 2 Comments

With season 2009 due to kick off under lights in Qatar in two weeks, it's time to take a look at how the championship is shaping up. This year sees no fewer than eight rider changes as well as a raft of changes to the rules and regulations. But as they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same, writes Trent Burton.

It's almost guaranteed that the battle for the title will once again be between the eight time champion and current title holder Italian Valentino Rossi on the Yamaha and 2007 World Champion Australian Casey Stoner on his Ducati. The early markets make Rossi a slight early favourite at [2.24] to Stoner's [2.78]. We then have a considerable gap back to Rossi's teammate Jorge Lorenzo currently trading at [13.0].

At the Official Test in Jerez last weekend, Casey Stoner blew everyone away, himself included, with a lap time over a second under the record.

"I really don't know where that fast lap came from," Stoner said afterwards, "I thought the rest were really going to up the ante. They did that, but I never expected to do the lap times that I did."

Rossi confessed to not being overly concerned: "We're leaving here happy and satisfied. We have small things to work on for Qatar but we're basically ready to race. I am not sure I could've beaten Stoner today though. He was faster over one lap than me."

And that might be the most telling thing for Stoner. He is still yet to run a full race distance in testing as he recovers from wrist surgery at the end of 2008. He has stated that it is steadily improving but the real test won't come until race-day.

Rossi and Stoner will be the two fighting for the title but each individual race will feature a host of guys capable of bobbing up for a win. The two Spaniards, Lorenzo and the currently injured Dani Pedrosa will have a part to play but beyond that there are at least five other riders who could put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Therefore one seasonal market that should draw a lot of interest is the 'World Champion without the Big Four' which consists of Rossi, Stoner, Lorenzo and Pedrosa. There will almost certainly be money to made here as the odds should change massively from round to round.

At [2.08] currently, Honda's new factory signing Andrea Dovizioso might seem a logical early favourite but he has struggled to get to grips with the Repsol bike and this year's Bridgestone control tyres as quickly as he might've liked in testing. If Nicky Hayden can get a handle on the Ducati then he will without question be one to watch and his countryman, Yamaha's Colin Edwards, in what may be his final year, always figures at the pointy end. The two to keep an eye on here though are the Rizla Suzuki pair of Chris Vermeulen and Loris Capirossi.

The newly evolved Suzuki has been ultra-impressive in the winter testing period with at least one bike always in the top five. Capirossi shocked everyone when he was quickest on day one in Sepang back in February and with the blue bikes finishing third and fifth in Jerez they should be challenging for podiums consistently. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a Suzuki win one or two by year's end either.

From a British perspective, it might be a make or break year for James Toseland. With a few riders sure to be knocking down the door for his seat in 2010 he really needs to produce a podium or two this season to be safe. Yet after two massive accidents in testing, he's missing time on the bike and lacking confidence at the moment so it might be a tough year for the Yorkshireman.

We now have only two weeks for everyone to reflect before the MotoGP season kicks off in the desert on April 12. Whatever happens, 2009 is sure to be exciting.