Moto GP / Trent Burton / 24 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Though the championship belongs to Rossi Casey Stoner can win the penultimate race of the season, says Trent Burton

"Just a few hundredths behind Lorenzo on Friday, and starting as equal favourite with Rossi at [3.15] is Stoner. He and Ducati both go well here and he wants to carry some momentum into the end of the year. At an identical price to Rossi I see Stoner as the better bet."

Last Time in MotoGP
Last week's Australian GP cleared up two of 2009's burning questions pretty much once and for all. Could Valentino Rossi hang on for his ninth world title and was Casey Stoner back from illness good and proper? Well, with his only title challenger in Jorge Lorenzo crashing out on lap one, Valentino now enjoys a 38 point buffer with just two races to go. It would take an utter disaster for the Italian to lose it from here. And after going toe to toe for the duration of the race with Stoner, only for the Australian to come out on top, it seems question two can be answered with a resounding yes. Stoner was simply on fire at the Island.

Track Preview
Sepang is a hard braking, hard accelerating circuit. Some of the smaller riders such as Dani Pedrosa, often find themselves with a bit of a weight advantage getting out of corners quickly here. It can also be a real test of fitness as temperatures and humidity often soar during the race. Stoner may be over his illness but this will be a real test of how quickly he has got back to full fitness. At a risk of repeating myself week after week, Rossi has historically done well here. This weekend though shapes up as one of the most open races in a while.

Rossi vs Lorenzo
If Lorenzo had nothing to lose last week he really doesn't this time round. His team-mate is pretty much a certainty to take the championship this Sunday. So while Jorge is a good bet for the win at [3.45], especially after running quickest on Friday, knowing Rossi, he isn't going to want to take the title coming home behind his team-mate. That makes his only slighter shorter price of [3.15] a much more attractive a punt at this stage. That price is looking a little inflated to me. He may want to take it a little easy and lock up the championship, even saying himself on Thursday, "There is no chance to relax - everyone is focused, motivated and excited now that we are at this stage and our number one target for the weekend is to try to close out the championship," but like I say, that doesn't mean he won't be gunning for a race win to close it out. Like last week however, the main challenge for the win will most likely come from a different garage down pit-lane.

The Pursuing Pack
Just a few hundredths behind Lorenzo on Friday, and starting as equal favourite with Rossi at [3.15] is Stoner. He and Ducati both go well here and he wants to carry some momentum into the end of the year. At an identical price to Rossi I see Stoner as the better bet. He just has less to lose by riding it into the ground. Pedrosa too is worth a look. The track suits him and if he can get away at the start then they mightn't be able to keep in touch and at 8.2 for the win he is well and truly one to watch.

The Last Word
It's another early start due to the time difference so make sure you set the alarm for the race. Rossi should wrap up the title this weekend so be ready for a characteristic off the wall celebration after the race when he does. He'd love to take title nine with a race win but I just think he may have to settle for second behind Stoner with Lorenzo completing the podium.

Tags: Casey Stoner, Sepang, Valentino Rossi