Japanese MotoGP: One way or another Fiat Yamaha look likely winners

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 26 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

...but that doesn't mean all the points will go Rossi's way says Trent Burton.

What a difference a year makes.

At Motegi in 2007, Casey Stoner won the MotoGP title, but now, one year on and back in Japan, the Aussie looks set to hand it over. The maths is simple. If Valentino Rossi finishes top three this weekend, regardless of any other result, he will be World Champion for an amazing eighth time and further entrench his name as one of, check that, I'll say it, the greatest of all time.

Extending his lead after the last round to 87 points it would take a disaster (mind you, Hurricane Ike couldn't stop him in Indy) to prevent Rossi taking this year's title, if not in Japan, then next week in Stoner's backyard at Phillip Island.

But even at [1.01] for the title, don't expect Rossi to go easy this weekend. Put simply, he wants to win every time he hops on the bike. The championship has been safe for ages yet he has still embarked on a four race winning streak.

Being in Japan he will be keen to tie up the title with a race win for all the Yamaha bosses in attendance. He is the favourite at [2.5] and that sounds about right to me.

With just four rounds left, the silly season has been in overdrive lately. It seems most rides are now officially confirmed for next year, (the latest being Andrea Dovizioso's move to Repsol Honda. And amongst all this is the almost inevitable confirmation expected on Sunday that we will have a one make tyre rule for next year. All this means that in Japan, in front of the top brass, there will be a lot of people out to impress their new employers. Or even stick it up their former ones. Right, Nicky?

Ducati love nothing more than besting the Japanese at their home track. The Italian manufacturer has a stunning record in Japan, taking victory there the last three years courtesy of Loris Capirossi and, of course, Stoner wrapped up the championship there last year.

Stoner is [2.82] to extend the streak to four and sat atop the time sheets on Friday. But you get the feeling that Ducati would also be rather happy to see Honda's Nicky Hayden take a win. After confirmation he will be Stoner's team-mate next year, Hayden was second in Indy and topped the morning session in the wet today. He would love nothing more than to beat 'team-mate' Dani Pedrosa over the last few rounds and really rub it in Honda's nose. He is [32.0] for a win and [3.0] for a podium and in Hayden's current frame of mind, and rekindled pace, neither is out of the question.

The Spanish rider was surprisingly quick in the dry today on his new Bridgestones. It's a track that suits a smaller rider like Pedrosa, being very stop-start and he could well end his barren run of late with a podium on Sunday but at [1.62] currently there is little value in it.

Podium value however might be found in some unlikely places. Marco Melandri is desperate to impress his new 2009 bosses at Kawasaki after a thoroughly disastrous '08. Motegi should suit his particular style on the Ducati more than most and [8.0] is a good podium price and anything over [5.0] for a top-six is certainly worth looking at. He was fifth in the dry on Friday. With Capirossi now at Suzuki it's hard to see him making it four on the trot this year, but he has been on the pace already and [3.5] is sound investment for a rostrum result.

But for me, the big chance at spoiling Rossi's party, is his Fiat Yamaha stable mate. Jorge Lorenzo's return to form of late has been nothing short of remarkable. At [11.0] to take his second win of the season, he's the value bet to look out for. He may have struggled a little today but expect that to be sorted by qualifying. With Jorge on Michelin and Rossi on Bridgestone, the bikes may look the same but don't expect there to be any F1-esque team orders flying about in the garages.

Remember to set your Sky Plus or your alarm as the race will be on live, bright and early at 06:00 on Sunday because you won't want to miss this one. There's plenty of value to be had amongst the chance to see the great Valentino Rossi crowned World Champion yet again.