Moto GP / Trent Burton / 30 May 2009 / Leave a comment

This week Trent Burton is in Mugello for round five of the 2009 MotoGP season.

Previously in MotoGP

A fortnight ago the French GP proved once again that the only thing predictable about
Le Mans is that it's unpredictable. A weekend of rain, bike problems for Casey Stoner, a crash for Valentino Rossi, the continuing resurgence of Dani Pedrosa and a second dominating win of the year for Jorge Lorenzo sees these top four in the title separated by single figure points in a great championship chase.

The Circuit: Mugello

A fan and rider favourite, Mugello in the hills of Florence is one of the most picturesque journeys we take all season. The track is a near perfect mixture of fast and slow turns and, unlike some tracks, it can really reward riders who are willing to take risks. The Rossi and Ducati fans will be out in full force on Sunday at a track where they have shared differing fortunes. Despite being their home track Ducati has never taken a victory here whereas Rossi has won in Mugello for the last seven years in a row. We always seem to think that 'this year' the streak will have to end but every year he produces something special to keep it alive. Will anyone ever forget 'That Helmet' from last season?

Rossi v Stoner

Just four races in and this section is already pushing for a title change. Perhaps next week it'll be Rossi vs Stoner vs Lorenzo vs Pedrosa. Pretty much everyone thought 2009 would shape up as a two horse race but thus far it's proved to be anything but. The Big Four led Friday practice today but given his amazing record here, Friday's second placed Rossi is the solid favourite right now at [1.89]. I don't see him getting anything but shorter over the weekend so if you're going with tradition, I'd get on now. Pedrosa has convinced me that his injuries are behind him, but his fitness might still be an issue around what is quite a demanding track physically and I just can't see him winning it. He is [6.8] currently but at [5.5] Casey Stoner represents much better value.

Stoner has rode as mature as I've ever seen him in the past few rounds and he's more relaxed than ever. He's super keen to notch up his first Mugello win and was just a few tenths away in third today. But once again the fastest Friday man was Lorenzo posting a best time two tenths under Stoner's lap record. If the young Spaniard can beat his team-mate Rossi here, then expect the rest of the season to be all out war in the Fiat Yamaha garage. That alone should be incentive enough for the supremely talented and cocky Lorenzo. At [4.6] he's great value to do just that.

The Pursuing Pack

It's difficult to see anyone challenging the Big Four here so the best value elsewhere could be found in the top six market once it gets going a bit closer to race time. The main one I'll be keeping my eye on is Alex De Anglis. De Anglis loves Mugello and produced the best ride of his short career here last year coming home fourth and sits six in Friday's times. He has had a very mixed start to '09 and thus could provide some attractive prices come race day.

The Last Word

I'm going to be playing it as safe as possible this round and going with history. It just doesn't seem normal anymore for someone other than Valentino Rossi to win Mugello and I'm tipping his streak to extend to eight. So for me it's Rossi for career win 99 followed home by Stoner and Lorenzo.