Moto GP / Trent Burton / 01 July 2011 /

Italian fans are desperate to see their hero triumph at Mugello but Trent Burton has bad news. He reckons the usual suspects will be in contention and another home rider might yet turn the corner.

Almost a year ago, when it became clear that Valentino Rossi was moving to Ducati, this is the weekend we all started counting down to.

Last year Rossi broke his leg at Mugello, but this year he's back. And on the Ducati. All of Italy is literally beside themselves with excitement. The sea of red and yellow around the track this weekend is reaching near biblical proportions. Sadly, they might have to pin false hopes on some sort of divine intervention for them to get a Rossi win.

I've always felt that Rossi's development of the Ducati in the early part of 2011 was all gearing up for a proper assault on Mugello. But things haven't gone to plan. It's nowhere near race victory pace yet. To make matters more difficult, the architect of all Rossi's MotoGP titles, crew chief Jeremy Burgess won't be at the circuit this weekend as he's back home in Australia with a family emergency. Rossi's record at Mugello may include nine victories but today's dry session saw him 13th. He will be throwing everything at it but a fairytale win should be out of reach. The odds of [2.48] are a tempting price for a podium result but it will take every ounce of talent the Italian has.

At the front, things were tight with just a tenth separating Marco Simoncelli, Casey Stoner and Andrea Dovizioso. The smart money is of course on Stoner. He had a bad race at Assen and ended up a lowly second. That's how good 2011 is going for him. He's a [2.22] favourite which is as long as he's been in a while. Strange what a second after three wins does to you.

Simoncelli was up to his usual tricks in Assen, being fast in qualifying before crashing, again, in the race. The difference is, this time, I get the sense he might have finally started to learn from his mistakes. There was no smugness after this latest mishap. He admitted he was impatient. He admitted it was a stupid mistake. This is new from Marco and a home GP might just see him turn the corner. I'd be taking [1.75] for a podium, finally, and am even tempted by the [6.2] on offer for the win. If he can keep his head in the first five laps, he's a definite chance.

Dovi is the dark horse. He likes Mugello, is in great form and was oddly quick on Friday which is not usual for the Italian. To see him so quick straight out of the box is an ominous sign. Odds of [2.0] for a Top 3 is the bet of the weekend to my mind and [14.0] for a win is a price far too long and well worth getting some of.

Ben Spies was a surprise winner in Assen and his team-mate Jorge Lorenzo produced the ride of the race, coming back to finish sixth after being taken out by Simoncelli. Both the Yamahas were just on the pace today but I suspect they make lack the speed here. Mugello is a super quick circuit and it will better suit the Hondas. Both are certain podium challengers but I would be surprised if either took the win on Sunday. Odds of [5.7] for Lorenzo especially may seem tempting but one of those three Hondas will be too good.

Mugello always produces exciting racing and, finally, we have a sunny day forecast for race day. With the added subplot of a returning Dani Pedrosa, Rossi on the Ducati and the will-he-won't-he of Simoncelli it's shaping up as a very interesting GP.

Recommended Bets
Back Andrea Dovizioso for the Top 3 at [2.0]
Back Marco Simoncelli for the Top 3 at [1.85]

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