Indianapolis MotoGP Betting Preview: Championship leader Rossi can extend advantage

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 29 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Contract time always brings out the best in some people (see Toni Elias in Brno) and when you add that to your home race, I’d be far from surprised to see Nicky Hayden take his first Ducati podium this weekend."

It's back to the Brickyard for round 12 of the MotoGP season where Valention Rossi is expected to dominate.

Previously in MotoGP
A fortnight ago in Brno, Valentino Rossi extended his championship lead to an almost unassailable 50 points and saw his price for a ninth world title drop to an almost unbackable price of [1.04], following a second consecutive race leading crash for team-mate Jorge Lorenzo. A lot of people have been suggesting that Lorenzo cracked under the pressure; that Rossi is in his head. Personally I think he's just shown how hard you have to ride to keep up with Tino at the moment and given he was already 25 points adrift heading into Brno, you can't blame the kid for trying. The silly season sorted itself a little in the lay off as well with Lorenzo confirming he'll be at Yamaha next year and Suzuki confirming Loris Capirossi and Alvaro Bautista for 2010.

The Circuit: Indianapolis
Arguably the most famous racetrack in the world, we return to Indy this year after the inaugural MotoGP race last year was cut short by a hurricane. It was raining again on Friday but the rest of the weekend is tipped to be dry. Rossi took the win in the deluge from Hayden in '08 but that form card will most likely count for little on Sunday. The biggest challenge will be finding a setup that makes the tyres last across the three very different surfaces that make up the circuit.

Rossi vs Lorenzo
On current form it really is hard to see past Rossi . Having the championship basically in the bag already will mean little to the Italian as he chases down Giacamo Agostini's all time wins record. He's a safe, if boring, bet at [1.91]. Predictably Lorenzo sits second favourite, currently [3.0], which I think is a pretty fair price. He's out of the championship now so can go all out for the win. The thing with Lorenzo though is he does that every week. With all the rumours of where he'll be next year now finally put to bed, there should be a bit of weight off the Spaniard's shoulders this weekend and I expect a good showing from him on Sunday.

The Pursuing Pack
The man quickest in the wet on Friday was Dani Pedrosa. He has been well and truly back to his old self lately, fighting for wins and podiums, and more importantly, the Honda is back to being a pretty solid motorcycle. It's still a way off the Yamaha's but if he can stay with the two Fiat boys early on expect his current price of [6.8] to tumble in-play. Pedrosa looks the best value of the round for mine. Contract time always brings out the best in some people (see Toni Elias in Brno) and when you add that to your home race, I'd be far from surprised to see Nicky Hayden take his first Ducati podium this weekend. He's been steadily improving over the last few races and the lack of a contract for 2010 and grandstands full of his loyal admirers might just spur him on. [8.0] for a Top 3 finish is a price well worth a punt for the Kentucky Kid.

The Last Word
Above and beyond anything else, let's hope it's dry on Sunday. Being a US round, the race will be live on Sunday evening where I'm going to play it safe this week and tip another Rossi win from Pedrosa and Lorenzo.