German Moto GP Betting: Carry on Valentino

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 17 July 2009 / Leave a comment

After a case of last man standing in the USA, the Moto GP circus moves on to Germany where that man Valentino Rossi is likely to put bike troubles behind him to take a step closer to another world title, says Trent Burton.

This weekend in Germany marks the halfway point for the 2009 MotoGP season.

Previously in MotoGP

No-one, not even Dani Pedrosa, could've tipped a Dani Pedrosa win in America. And even if the little Spaniard had an inkling himself, I doubt he would've thought he'd do it so easily.

But whilst Pedrosa's win, and Honda's first in a year, is worthy of applause it must be put into perspective. In the US Valentino Rossi struggled with front end grip and the other two title challengers, Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner, were both suffering from practice crash injuries as well as, in Stoner's case, what doctors have now identified as a case of anaemia.

With the two of them still well below 100%, this weekend is looming as a pivotal one in the championship battle with Rossi threatening to break clear.

The Circuit: Sachsenring

One of the twistiest tracks on the calendar, it should suit the tiny Pedrosa. He's won here three times in the past and was miles ahead in a wet race here last year before a huge crash wrecked his year and Stoner strolled to the win.

The Australian has spoken of his difficulty with circuits heavy on left handers as he struggles with his rib and wrist injuries, and the Sachsenring features just four right handers to it's ten lefts so it may be a tough weekend for the Aussie. Two other riders who've enjoyed the German circuit are Rossi, with three wins to his name, and Nicky Hayden. Excluding last year's disaster, the re-emerging Ducati rider hadn't been off the podium here since 2003.

The Championship Contenders

Rossi finished third in Friday's session ran in mixed conditions and will start as favourite at around [2.6] Given that most of his challengers are the walking wounded at the moment I'm surprised to see him at this good a price so early.

Lorenzo might be second favourite, as he is for the title, but he struggled on Friday with his injuries still clearly affecting him. He doesn't have a good record in Germany either so despite looking somewhat tempting at [4.6] I just can't back him this time even though Jorge's speciality seems to be achieving the impossible whilst riding injured.

As for Stoner, bearing in mind everything that's stacked up against him as has been mentioned, I'm not writing him off just yet, especially at a very juicy [7.1].

It's tipped to rain this weekend which will make it a lot less physically demanding for Stoner, who is a demon in the wet. Quickest on Friday, albeit in short energy-saving stints, Stoner is very much in contention.

The Pursuing Pack

Pedrosa might be down in the title chase but his tail is up now. Honda have delivered new engines for this weekend and everyone in that garage believes they are contenders once again.

With the other big guns, besides Rossi, injury-riddled, Pedrosa is certainly worth a look for a second win of the year at [4.1]. He's always a little unpredictable but represents the best value bet of the round for me. Also on the comeback march is Hayden. After a strong showing in the last two rounds it seems he is getting to grips with the Ducati now. He was top of the sheets for the bulk of Friday's session and the Kentucky lad finally has a smile back on his face. It's a long race on Sunday and baring everything in mind, a punt on a podium result for him at [9.2] is mighty attractive.

The Last Word

Rain is predicted for the race on Sunday so anything could happen as it did here last year. Chris Vermeulen is carrying some bad form and too many injuries to warrant the usual wet weather bet on him I feel, so I'm tipping a Rossi victory with Pedrosa and Stoner just behind him on the podium.