Dutch MotoGP Preview: Don't forget Stoner's a genius too

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 26 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

This weekend it's the traditional Saturday race, the Dutch TT, for Round Seven the 2009 MotoGP season. Trent Burton checks out the betting ahead of the action...

Previously in MotoGP
In one of the greatest races of all time in Catalunya, Valentino Rossi reaffirmed his position as the greatest motorcycle racer on the planet right now. Maybe ever. Fittingly Jorge Lorenzo tipped his own demise earlier in the week, saying that if you led into the last corner on the last lap you had it won. No-one could pass you there, he said. Except Rossi, he said. What unfortunate foresight for the Spaniard. Beyond that epic battle, Casey Stoner turned in a stunning ride to third place, riding so ill that he actually threw up in his helmet twice during the race. All this means we are now effectively left with an 11 race series with the top three tied on 106 points each.

The Circuit: Assen
Although still considered the cathedral of MotoGP, the Assen circuit has been modified and shortened over the last few years to accommodate more fans. It still features a great mix of fast and slow corners and the famous chicane onto the start-finish but it's lost some of it's magic from years gone by. Rossi has taken four victories in MotoGP, three of which were on the old layout and Lorenzo two in the 250cc class here. Last year, however, was all Stoner as he ran away to win by 11-plus seconds.

The Championship Contenders
After the Catalunya epic, Lorenzo will be keen to strike back against his team-mate, while the Italian will be equally eager to sink the boot in further. Stoner, back to full fitness, will be determined for the weekend not to turn into another all-Yamaha show. With it being so tight at the top this year there has been some great value in the pre-race and in-play markets of late as each race has thrown up some surprises. This weekend looks to be no different. Thursday was a dry practice, but a wet race is tipped. Randy De Puniet was quickest then, but try not to get distracted by that rare occurrence as the big three were awfully close behind. Rossi will start a predictable favourite at [2.56] ahead of Lorenzo at [3.85]. Both represent realistic prices but in all the post-Catalan excitement people seem to have forgotten about Casey a little and he's drifted out to nearly [4.0]. Just a few hundredths off in the dry, an excellent wet weather rider if it does rain, and at a track he dominated last year, Stoner is hands down the best value in this race for me.

The Pursuing Pack
Despite De Puniet's early pace I don't seem him troubling the leaders on Saturday. If it does rain then the standard Chris Vermeulen rule applies. He's [16.0] for a top three currently, but if the clouds open that will tumble very quickly, so keep one eye skyward and one of the market over the next day or so. At [4.0] for a podium, Andrea Dovizioso is who I'll be giving some attention. He's been so close to the podium this year without cracking it and at the post Catalan test he found something extra in the new Honda chassis. He'll be nudging the big three again this weekend, no question.

The Last Word
First and foremost, remember it's a Saturday race, not Sunday this time out! When the lights go out on race day, rain or shine, I'm tipping Stoner to take his third win of the year, just, from Rossi and Lorenzo. And if it does rain, a lot, then I'll have that Vermeulen card handy for an in-play bet.