Moto GP / Trent Burton / 12 August 2011 /

Trent Burton is liking the look of Honda's hungry Spaniard who has hit the ground running since coming back from injury

The summer break is over and the bikes are back in Brno this weekend where Casey Stoner is looking to extend his championship lead.

Stoner's ride in the USA three weeks ago was one of the best of his career. He had struggled all weekend and then turned in a belter of a race that included two of the finest passing moves we've seen this year. He's struggled ever so slightly so far in the Czech Republic but has been making progress.

Brno is one of the Australian's favourite tracks but he couldn't match the pace of team-mate Dani Pedrosa on Friday. He was one second behind him this morning but reduced that gap to under half a second in the afternoon. Stoner is the sort of rider who, if he's not quick straight out of the box, can often struggle over the whole weekend but he bucked that trend in Laguna. There's no doubt he'll continue to find some more speed over the next few days so I'd be taking the [3.5] on offer for a victory now as that is sure to shorten closer to race day.

Yet his team-mate is a man on a mission here. Pedrosa is nearing full fitness again with a win and a third in two races back from injury. His pace today, compared to everyone else, was scary. He's been consistently lapping nearly half a second quicker than the field on almost every lap.

Dani usually works up to this level over the three days so the fact he's this quick straight away is a concern for the rest - his price of [2.52] is as short as he's been this season but he's a worthy favourite at this point. I can't see his price moving much, either way, so it might be worth waiting to see how much Stoner and co can bridge the gap tomorrow.

Stoner's championship challenger, Jorge Lorenzo, has not been as quick as he'd like so far. He's the only Yamaha amongst the Hondas up front. Brno is a track he's had great success at in the past however and its flowing nature should suit the Yamaha but it's not quite been the case so far - nevertheless, at [3.9] I think he is excellent value. I wouldn't have his price so close to that of Stoner but I find it hard to believe he'll drift any more so if you want to get on Jorge, now's the time to do it. No-one out there is as determined as Jorge but he'll need to make some big steps tomorrow though to get up to the Repsol Hondas.

Marco Simoncelli has been quick on one of the other factory Hondas but again, he also crashed today. Simoncelli should have had a number of podiums this year and he probably should have even won a race or two. Certainly he could have won Jerez, and probably Assen as well, but he crashed out in both. Whilst the speed is there, as I keep saying, he's a lay for a top three for me, regardless of his pace, until he proves he can keep it upright when he's in front in a race situation.

We've got good weather predicted all weekend for one of the most hotly anticipated GPs of the year. They're tipping a crowd nudging 250 000 over the weekend so let's hope the top three guys can deliver a race, just like Laguna was, worthy of such a figure.

Recommended Bets
Back Dani Pedrosa for the win at [2.52]
Lay Marco Simoncelli for the Top 3 at [3.5]

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