Moto GP / Trent Burton / 14 August 2009 / Leave a comment

The summer break is over and the action moves on for Round 11 of the MotoGP Championship in the Czech Republic. Trent Burton is at the helm.

"Rossi, predictably on form, will start favourite at [2.04]. Anything over [2.0] is always a good value bet for Rossi in my book, but this weekend I think the better punt might be on his team-mate. With a 25 point cushion in the title, Rossi doesn't need to take any risks, whereas Lorenzo has little option but to go all out."

Previously in MotoGP
How much time have you got? The MotoGP circus has been in overdrive in the last three weeks. The results at Donington proved to be almost as shambolic as the place itself with Andrea Dovizioso taking his first win, both Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo crashing and the Ducati pair of Casey Stoner and Nicky Hayden taking a huge gamble with tyre choice that backfired in a major way.
Following the race the silly season went bonkers with riders clambering for seats for next year before, earlier this week, Stoner dropped an announcement to blow all of that out the water. His mystery illness not getting any better, he has taken the decision to sit out the next three GPs, effectively reducing the championship to a two horse race. Consequently Mika Kallio moves up to Stoner's factory bike and in comes Michel Fabrizio to take the Finn's ride in the meantime. And that's only the half of it.

The Circuit: Brno
Brno is a fast flowing circuit that is hugely popular amongst most of the riders. The second longest circuit of the year features many fast changes of direction and elevation providing a real test for riders. Both Rossi and Lorenzo, as well as the resurgent Dani Pedrosa, have all had multiple successes here in the past. The three of them account for a total of 10 Brno victories.

Rossi vs Lorenzo
With Stoner effectively giving away 100 points with his three race withdrawal and Donington disaster, the championship is down to the Fiat Yamaha duo. Rossi, predictably on form, will start favourite at [2.04]. Anything over [2.0] is always a good value bet for Rossi in my book, but this weekend I think the better punt might be on his team-mate. With a 25 point cushion in the title, Rossi doesn't need to take any risks, whereas Lorenzo has little option but to go all out. Traditionally he has always bounced back very strong from previous race crashes and his pace on Friday has been nothing short of remarkable. At [3.25] he's a great price to finally get one back on Valentino this weekend.

The Pursuing Pack
With no Stoner around, the remaining podium spot is more wide open than normal. Pedrosa is the obvious bet and I don't expect you'll find a lot of value in him especially given he has been the best of the rest on Friday. However, at [4.0] currently, I'll be keeping an eye on Colin Edwards. He was very fast today and has a definite spring in his step after coming home second at Donington. He enjoys Brno and I would be far from surprised to see him go for back-to-back podiums on Sunday. Someone else with a spring in their step is Kallio. He's beside himself with the chance to ride the factory Ducati and was consistently not just quicker than new teammate Hayden today, but more than half the field. I'd expect to see some good prices for him for a first ever top-six result as the race draws closer.

The Last Word
If Lorenzo is serious about challenging Rossi for the title, he has to beat him here. There's every chance Stoner will be back fully fit in three races so both riders will be keen to take advantage of this current head-to-head situation. For me the Spaniard has the upper hand this weekend, although only slightly, so I'm tipping Lorenzo for the win from Rossi and Edwards for an all Yamaha rostrum.

Tags: Brno, Czech MotoGP, Jorge Lorenzo, Valentino Rossi