British Moto GP: It's too soon for Toseland so expect Rossi to triumph

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 19 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Trent Burton doubts there will be a home victory at Donnington this weekend and wonders if, despite scintilating form, Dani Pedrosa has the stomach for a fight.

Here's a thought as we approach this week's British MotoGP round at Donington Park. Two rounds ago, the Italian race was won by an Italian and last fortnight a Spaniard won in Spain. So can Britain's James Toseland carry on the trend of home victories this weekend in the East Midlands? In short, no. I really don't think he can.

There's no doubt the Tech 3 Yamaha pilot from Yorkshire will be quick this weekend. If he's finishing top six at tracks he's never ridden before you can expect him to be on the pace straight out of the truck around a place he could surely ride with his eyes closed, but that doesn't necessarily put him at the front with the main guys in my book.

The manner of Dani Pedrosa's win in Catalunya last round was simply stunning. He absolutely belted the opposition into next week from the green light putting in stellar lap after stellar lap to be eight seconds out in front by the half way point. It's true that Valentino Rossi had to come through from ninth and Casey Stoner made a few small mistakes but even so, I don't think you could've stopped Dani last week if you were in a jet. But, and call me crazy if you want, that is exactly my main issue with Pedrosa as we approach the half way point in the season, and why I just can't take him seriously as a title contender. He is yet to win a dog fight in the premier class. If he's away early and gets some clear track and time to get into a rhythm, then he's gone. He's done it twice so far this year.

But the fairing banging duels like that between Rossi and Stoner for second place in Spain don't sit well with Pedrosa and he's yet to come out on top in one of those battles as the other's have. Even Jorge Lorenzo, when upright, has shown his merits in the scraps. Pedrosa's win at Donington back in 2006 was the same story. He won it by a sizeable margin as Rossi fought his way through from eleventh on the grid. But if he can't escape in the first few laps, then it seems that's Dani done for.

Moving onto Donington Park, it is one of the more interesting circuits on the calendar. Basically a track of two halves there is the fast, flowing section that starts the lap, and then the stop-start tighter new section that takes riders off the downhill straight and eventually back onto the start-finish line. Finding a set-up that works across the entire lap, on what is a notoriously slippery surface brutal on tyres, is always one of compromise. It's this that generally sees Donington produce not only great racing but a myriad of different winners. Since the track entered the calendar in 1987 we've seen thirteen different victors in the premier class, twelve of them world champions. Of the top eight riders in the championship at this point all have tasted victory at this circuit so we should be in for a fantastic race.

And you can expect it to be between the three riders who have won here the last three years. Pedrosa will be on a high after his home win but after a huge high side in testing on the Monday after the race it will be interesting to see how any minor injuries sustained from that tumble will affect him over the weekend. After everyone wrote him off here last year, saying it was a track that wouldn't suit the Ducati one iota, Stoner proved everyone wrong and produced a magnificent ride to take the win. And then there's the [2.6] favourite in Rossi. He's on form, he loves the track, it suits the Yamaha, he'll be fired up for this, his 200th GP and he's never been happier. It really is hard to find a reason to bet against him this weekend. But let's look at a few options all the same.

A solid roughie bet at [29.0] might be Colin Edwards. He has been pushing the podium and the front runners all year and always goes well at Donington. An early bet on the Texan is well worth a look given you can cover yourself mid race on the lower odds bound to be found in play on Pedrosa and Rossi should Edwards lose touch with the leaders. Lorenzo will be fighting fitness as he comes back from another big fall in Catalunya that caused him to miss the race and may struggle to run at the front all day. But then, that's what we all thought in Le Mans where he ended up second. Then of course, being Donington in the middle of an English summer we can expect rain on Sunday at some point which brings Chris Vermeulen into the picture who took third here last year in the wet. So if it does bucket down as it may well do expect Vermeulen's current price of [20.0] to get a lot shorter very quickly.

And now for the six million dollar question; What of James Toseland? Like I say, I just don't see that he has the pace yet to run at the front of the pack over full race distance. For certain, in the future, Toseland will be a race winner, just not yet. If you do fancy a patriotic punt though there is some value to be found with a look at Toseland to put the bike on pole on Saturday, or even a top three finish come race day which is not out of the question and at [5.3] is far from a bad idea and one that I'll be taking a look at.

We'll be at Donington over the whole weekend to keep you up to date with all the practise and qualifying news as we edge towards one of the most anticipated British GPs in years on Sunday.