Moto GP / Trent Burton / 03 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Trent Burton doesn't see Rossi making it six in a row at Philip Island this weekend...

Valentino Rossi clinched the title in Japan last week with his fifth win on the trot, so this weekend in Australia he has nothing to lose. Then again, that's how the Italian rides week in and week out. But it's the man he beat for this year's title who will undoubtedly be putting up a mighty challenge with his pride on show at home.

Such was Casey Stoner's popularity at his home race last year they had to build an extra grandstand to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of fans who headed to the Island to cheer him on. He won't be short of support and he may need to feed off it if he is to record back-to-back Australian MotoGP victories and his first since early July.

Friday's practices were split, conditions wise, with the morning dry and the afternoon session run in the rain. Come Sunday, dry weather is thankfully expected. Stoner was back to his brutal Friday best in the morning, three quarters of a second up on the pack, headed by Valentino.

Last week in Japan he was very quick until losing pace in the second half of the race allowing Rossi to pull away. Still nursing a broken wrist, Stoner has spoken of how the injury has kept him from training for the last month or so and thus he had grown tired on the physically demanding Motegi circuit. Perhaps the home support will make him a little less exhausted this weekend and at [2.7] is a sound investment. Rossi is the favourite at [2.2] and can obviously never be discounted, but I tip Stoner to stop the Italian's streak at five on Sunday.

Dani Pedrosa took his first Bridgestone rostrum last week but may find the going a little tougher this time round. No track on the calendar should suit the Spaniard better than Motegi so it's hard to see how he will challenge for the win this week when his race pace was found lacking. With the one tyre rule now confirmed for 2009, the rest of 2008 may well be an extended test session for the Repsol Honda pilot so there is little value in him again for this round's markets.

For me, the ones to watch outside of the big three will be Jorge Lorenzo, Nicky Hayden and James Toseland. Lorenzo continued his good run of late with pole and a fourth in Japan and has won the last two 250cc GPs in Australia to boot. He sat neatly in the top ten this morning, well and truly on pace early on, which is not often the case with the young Spaniard. At [1.8] for a podium he's a little short as yet, but a punt at [9.0] for the win, if he can qualify at the pointy end is worth a look.

The bet of the round, on the other hand is [4.0] for Hayden to finish in the top 3. Hayden has always done well here and is one of the few riders, along with Stoner, to have really taken it to Rossi around Phillip Island. He was dialled in nicely in the dry on Friday morning, and topped the sheets in the afternoon rain so keep an eye on the 2006 World Champion.

As for Britain's Toseland, the Australian track is (ironically) the one he knows best on the calendar. He has put in a lot of laps around the Island in World Superbikes and has taken a few victories along the way. He was on the pace in the dry and a return to the top six is on the cards, a price around [3.0] looks enticing. The question mark over these three could end up being the temperature and how their Michelins adjust to the typical Phillip Island cold compared to the Bridgestones of Stoner, Rossi and Pedrosa.

Whatever happens, Phillip Island is always a season highlight. It is not just the only circuit with ocean views but also the fastest one on the calendar and a clear cut favourite amongst all the riders. The Victorian track usually produces fantastic racing and duels here in the past, such as the epic four way battle in 1990 of legends Gardner, Doohan, Rainey and Schwantz and the ultimate Rossi versus Biaggi showdown of 2001 have gone down as some of the greatest GPs in history.

It's an early start again for UK viewers on Sunday morning so set your recorders and alarms because if the race can live up to those lofty heights of Phillip Island days gone by, this is one you won't want to miss. Here's hoping.