Australian Moto GP: Stoner set for fairytale homecoming?

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 14 October 2011 /

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Stoner in action at Phillip Island

"Stoner is nearly unbackable at [1.47] and that will get shorter, so get on now or look for value elsewhere."

Trent Burton looks ahead to Sunday's big race and explains why he believes home fans could be in for a treat...

The last time anyone other than Casey Stoner won the Australian Moto GP Tony Blair was still PM.

The last round at Motegi was chaos on track. Five crashes, including Valentino Rossi in the second corner while more people ran off track, including Stoner with a brakes issue that meant he had to fight back to third. We also had three jump starts. In short, it was all a bit insane.

In the wash up Dani Pedrosa took the win and, more importantly, Jorge Lorenzo took second ahead of Stoner. He may have only taken a few points out of Stoner's lead but it did put a massive dent in Casey's plans of a fairytale this weekend at Phillip Island. It seemed certain that Stoner would wrap up the title at home this weekend, on his birthday no less, but now that's a little more difficult. If the Australian wins the race, Lorenzo would need to finish off the podium for Stoner to be crowned world champion.

As you would expect, today's practice saw Stoner fastest. He hasn't enjoyed as large a margin over the rest on Fridays in the past but he wasn't overly happy with the bike, nor the surface, today. Expect him to get more comfortable and quicker as the weekend goes on. He has won here for the last four years in a row, and should he win on Sunday, he'll be the only man to have won a GP at Phillip Island on an 800cc bike as we move to 1000cc in 2012. He's nearly unbackable at [1.47] for the win and that will get even shorter, so either get on now or look for value elsewhere.

Lorenzo is second favourite, a long way back, at [4.2]. He was quicker than even he expected today in third but that owes more to Pedrosa's struggles than Lorenzo's pace. He always finds a bit extra on Sunday so I expect to see Jorge on the podium, postponing Stoner's championship celebrations. He'll drift a little when Pedrosa gets up to speed tomorrow so anything around [1.8] for a Jorge Top 3 is worth a look.

The best value this weekend lies with the fourth factory Honda of Marco Simoncelli. He was very quick today, despite two small crashes, and has two wins in the lower classes to his name at Phillip Island. He rode brilliantly after his jump start penalty in Japan and he's due for another podium. If he can do it by keeping Jorge off the podium it's going to make a lot of people at Honda very, very happy with the Italian. Odds of [2.6] for a podium for Marco is excellent.

Over at Ducati, things aren't getting any better. Rossi said yesterday he was feeling positive as Ducati had always done well at Phillip Island. True, they've won here the last four years, but as we've seen so often this season, that's had a lot more to do with the man that was on it than the bike apparently. If you can get good odds on Rossi ending another weekend with his foot in his mouth, take the bet.

Phillip Island might be regarded by the riders as the best track in the world, but the weather is another story. It's expected to be sunny but chilly all weekend which will affect grip, but as always that weather prediction means little. It'll probably hail tomorrow. Whatever the weather, one thing I'd put down as fairly certain, is a fifth straight home win for Stoner.

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