The Contrarian: Why Lewis Hamilton won't get a podium finish at the Singapore Grand Prix

Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 25 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Chicken Dinner reckons the Drivers Championship will have a new leader come Sunday evening.

After winning the British and German Grands Prix in quick succession back in July, Lewis Hamilton looked like a shoe-in to win this season's Drivers Championship. However, after a run of four races without a win- well, one win that was stripped from him and three failures - things aren't looking quite so straightforward. Felipe Massa is just a single point behind the Brit and come Sunday evening the Brazilian will be the new leader because Hamilton isn't going to make the podium at the first ever Singapore night race. Here's why:

Hamilton's podium strike rate is dwindling

Last season's runner-up memorably finished on the podium in each of his first nine F1 races and as such gained a reputation for consistency that he has not been able to build on this season. After fourteen races in 2007, Hamilton had finished in the top three in eleven races - a 79% success rate. But in his fourteen races this season, he has only finished on the podium eight times - a 57% success rate.

In 2007 he lost momentum as the season wore on

After the blistering start to last season, Hamilton started to disappoint in the closing stages. Last term he led Fernando Alonso by three points with four races remaining and had what appeared an unassailable 18-point advantage over Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton then blew it, claiming just one podium finish from the final four races. There are four races left this year and Hamilton leads Massa by just one point - intense pressure for a man who was in a better position and choked last term.

Asia hasn't been a happy place for Hamilton this year

The Brit hasn't finished on the podium in either of the races held in Asia this season. In Malaysia, Hamilton received a five-place grid penalty for impeding Nick Heidfeld and Alonso in qualifying but would have only qualified fourth without it. In the race, he finished fifth, over 46 seconds behind Raikkonen. In the following race in Bahrain he qualified third but screwed up in the race - starting poorly then crashing into the back of Alonso. He finished thirteenth, his lowest finishing position in a Formula One race. Proof that Hamilton's was particularly weak in Asia comes from the fact he won the race prior to the Asian double-header and recorded podium finishes in the three that followed them.

Bad results come in twos

On three of the last four occasions that Hamilton has followed up a podium result with failure to finish in the top three, he has gone on to again finish outside the podium positions at the following Grand Prix. That doesn't bode well considering he finished seventh in Italy a fortnight ago.

Hamilton doesn't respond well to stewards' decisions

Hamilton has been punished by stewards three times this season but has never responded on the track with a podium performance. In Malaysia he received a five-place grid penalty but ended the race in fifth. After crashing into Raikkonen in Canada, Hamilton had a ten-place penalty in France but struggled in the race, finishing tenth. In the race that followed the decision to revoke his win at Spa, he finished just sixth in Italy. Whereas some sportsman are capable of developing an "us against the world" mentality to their advantage when decisions go against them, the evidence suggests that Hamilton isn't able to do this, which doesn't bode well considering the FIA's decision to uphold the Spa decision this week.

History and momentum are not with Hamilton

Massa has momentum: he has won two of the last three races and would have won the Hungary race were it not for engine failure. Raikkonnen has history on his side: he finished on the podium in his final four races last season, winning three outright and has recorded podium finishes in his last six Asian Grand Prix.

Robert Kubica could be the other man standing tall: he has finished second and third in the two Asian Grand Prix so far this season; he has been on the podium in two of his last three races; and he is the most reliable driver in the Championship picking up points in 12 of the last 13 races.