Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 19 August 2010 / 1

With seven races to go, Lewis Hamilton is second, four points shy of leader Mark Webber and six clear of Sebastian Vettel, in the Drivers' Championship. So surely it's a mistake that he's [6.4] fourth favourite to take top spot? The Contrarian certainly thinks so...

Hamilton is the most consistent challenger...

Lewis Hamilton has finished in the top six at 10 of the dozen races to date this year, more times than anybody else on the grid has managed. Over a season, it's the driver capable of grinding out strong results on their off day, rather than collecting just a few, or worse no, points when faced with adversity, who ends up winning the title. Not convinced? In four of the last five seasons, there has been an outright leader in terms of top-six finishes (Fernando Alonso in 2005 and 2006, Hamilton in 2008 and Jenson Button last year) and on each occasion that man has been crowned champion.

...and has cut out the errors

Hamilton chucked away the title in his first season in Formula One with big mistakes in the final two races, then made costly errors early on in 2008. The most encouraging thing about the stat that Hamilton has only finished outside the top six twice is that the car, rather than his driving, was to blame for both disappointments. In Spain, a wheel rim failure on the penultimate lap denied him second place while in Hungary at the start of this month, a transmission problem forced him out.

McLaren have the happiest camp

When the teams for 2010 were announced, the McLaren line-up looked risky. Hamilton had been there forever, was the main man and was eager to fight for the Drivers' Championship after a stop-start 2009, so how could he work with reigning champ Button? However, the duo have relished one another's competition - Hamilton beating Button in five straight races before retiring in Hungary - while Red Bull has been the home of disharmony, with Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel taking one another out in Turkey and Webber later moaning about being the number two driver. All is not rosy at Ferrari either. Alonso has emerged as a contender in recent weeks, but following the team orders controversy in Germany, Felipe Massa has refused to do the Spaniard any more favours.

Webber is in unfamiliar territory...

This is Webber's ninth campaign in Formula One but the first time he has ever entered the final stretch with a genuine shot at winning the title, let alone facing the pressure of being the guy everyone is trying to catch. As referenced earlier, Hamilton cracked the first time he assumed the role in 2007 and Button showed signs last season, only to benefit from the fact that his challengers were equally inexperienced and because the lead he established early in the season ultimately proved insurmountable.

...and hasn't capitalised on his advantage

Whereas Button was 26 points clear within seven races last season when Brawn (now Mercedes) got the jump on their rivals, neither Webber nor Red Bull team-mate Vettel have made the most of starting with comfortably the quickest car. The Australian leads Hamilton by just four points and such an advantage is easier to wipe out than ever before due to the new points system (for example, last year you only gained two and four points on a rival if finishing first while they came second or third respectively, this year you gain seven or 10).

This is where it all went wrong last year

Webber had a lot of momentum at this stage last season, having impressed at the British, German and Hungarian Grands Prix, yet his progress was halted by a scoreless run of results in Belgium, Italy, Singapore and Japan. Worryingly for Webber, those four races are up next, in identical order.

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1. Fast Pace | 19 August 2010

   This is interesting, and true. Hamilton has consistently acknowledged (even when his results were not as glowing, at the start of this season) that he felt his driving was strong and that the car felt very capable although it wasn't quickest on the grid. The most impressive point is that given the pace of the McLarens'relative to the field, one could conclude that fielding capable equipment and exceptional drivers may be preferrable to possessing exceptional equipment and capable drivers.

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