The Betfair Contrarian: Why Jenson Button will win the British Grand Prix

Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 07 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

Will there be more bubbly opening on Sunday for Jenson Button?

"No Grand Prix currently on the calendar has as great a recent record of local success as the Silverstone showpiece, which has been won by British drivers in nine of the last 24 years."

He's the world champ, he's second in the drivers' championship and it's his home grand prix - yet somehow Jenson Button is only joint fourth favourite in the British GP odds. And that's wrong says the Betfair Contrarian

The Contrarian loves pursuing bets that most wouldn't dare consider - and this weekend's British Grand Prix throws up the perfect example. Few punters would back a Brit right now after the England football team's World Cup flop and Andy Murray's failure Wimbledon, and even then they wouldn't pick Jenson Button over 2008 winner Lewis Hamilton. Especially when you consider Button has never even finished on the podium. Ignore all that, though - there are plenty of reasons to back the reigning world champion at [8.6]...

Brits have a great record at Silverstone

No Grand Prix currently on the calendar has as great a recent record of local success as the Silverstone showpiece, which has been won by British drivers in nine of the last 24 years. Nigel Mansell, Damon Hill, Johnny Herbert, David Coulthard and Lewis Hamilton have all taken to the top step of the podium during that period, so this is Jenson Button's big chance to join that group.

It wont be Vettel's day...

Last year's winner Sebastian Vettel is the [3.35] favourite to triumph again but he would have to make history to do so. None of Vettel's seven Formula One victories have come in successive races (he was victorious in Valencia a fortnight ago), and he is also hindered by the fact that no man has won the British Grand Prix twice in a row since 2000, with only two of the last nine pace-setters even returning to the podium a year later. Still don't believe there's a winner's curse? Well, the two men who took the chequered flag at Silverstone before Vettel wound up a lap off the pace 12 months on.

...and Hamilton won't be winning either

Driver's Championship leader Hamilton has a British Grand Prix win on his CV but his record there isn't the greatest. In 2007, he failed to convert pole position into victory and was forced to settle for third. Admittedly, his 2008 success was brilliant but it was all thanks to his ability to keep cool in wet conditions - a talent that shouldn't be required this weekend - in a race where his main rivals didn't shine. Last year's 16th-place finish on the other hand was the worst of his Formula One career at that time. Another remarkable trend that counts against Hamilton is that the Championship leader has won at Silverstone just three times in 16 years.

The track alterations should suit Button

Hill, Mika Hakkinen, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen all feature on the long list of modern day heroes with only one British Grand Prix win to their names, because of its habit of throwing up a different victor each year. The man atop the podium has changed in each of the last seven seasons, and the last five have all been first-time winners, so past success counts for nothing. All of which is handy considering Button is a man with a point to prove at his home circuit. His ability to adapt quickly (he dealt with last year's drastic rule changes better than anyone, then won two of his first four races for McLaren) should also hand him an advantage as Silverstone's layout has been changed significantly.

Button's consistency makes him a threat

You're always likely to get value for money out of a bet on Button because he's always there or thereabouts. The McLaren man heads into the race in great form having finished on the podium at each of the last three races and only placed outside the top eight once all season. In addition, he has only re