The Betfair Contrarian: Why Ferrari won't win the Constructors' Championship

Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 25 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Contrarian is not normally a big fan of committeemen, but he has to tip his cap to Formula One's rule tamperers who, short of hosing oil onto their racetracks, couldn't have rendered their sport more unpredictable.

Ferrari have won the Constructors' Championship in eight of the last 10 seasons and the Scuderia are [2.26] favourites with Betfair to make it nine in eleven. However, with the new regulations meaning strange things will happen, and McLaren unlikely to get themselves disqualified and gift Ferrari the title as they did two years ago, here's why the Contrarian advises you to bet on yet more Italian sporting failure.

A strong start is essential....

In nine of the last 11 seasons, the team whose driver has won the opening race has gone on to win the Constructors' Championship. This year a Ferrari driver is not expected to be doused in champagne on the Albert Park podium, as reflected by the fact Jenson Button is [5.0] favourite to win the race and Brawn GP are [3.4] front runners to be the winning constructor in Melbourne. Felipe Massa has retired from four of his previous six Australian grands prix and has never finished higher than sixth while Kimi Raikkonen has only won there once before and is on a shocking 14 race winless streak.

...which is why Brawn GP are so feared

It is difficult to predict how Brawn GP will fare in the latter stages of the season but their dominant performances in testing suggest that they should pick up lots of points in the first few races. Sir Frank Williams said they are "making the rest of us look like amateurs" and suggested they could "disappear" at the front.

In 2005, Renault emerged from relative anonymity to end a six-year spell of unbroken Ferrari success, having finished 157 points behind the Italians in third the previous year. A strong start was the key to their victory too, with wins in each of the opening four races giving them a cushion that allowed them to triumph despite winning just four of the 15 races that followed.

Brawn has won seven Constructors' Championships

Ross Brawn guided Benetton to the Constructors' Championship in 1995 and won six in a row with Ferrari between 1999 and 2004. The Englishman was considered just as important as Michael Schumacher in turning Ferrari's fortunes around.

Ferrari have yet to be properly tested since Brawn and Schumacher left

The Scuderia may have won the title twice since Brawn and Schumacher left in 2006 but neither triumph was particularly decisive. In 2007, McLaren picked up more points than Ferrari but were first docked the ones they gained in Hungary and then disqualified completely. Last year they won outright for the first time in four years, however McLaren were forced to axe unhappy former two-time world champion Fernando Alonso at the start of the campaign and replace him with Heikki Kovalainen, who had only raced one season in Formula One. Raikkonen was awful for much of the season but Ferrari still triumphed in the Constructors' because the Finn was able to outscore his inexperienced compatriot.

Italian sport is in decline

It's been a bad year for Italian sport. The rugby team lost every game at the Six Nations for only the second time in seven years. The football team has struggled to live up to their billing as world champions and have won just four of their last eleven, and there are no Serie A sides in the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time in seven years. Their performance at the Olympics was their worst since 1992 and the one bright spot - Ferrari's Constructors' Championship success - was overshadowed by Felipe Massa's heartbreak as the Drivers' Championship was stolen from him on the final lap of the final race.