Formula One / Scott Ferguson / 09 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Scott Ferguson looks at the stats, trends and form ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix and confirms that the man on pole should indeed be an odds-on shot. Plus the other good bets to look out for.

Of the last 12 Spanish GPs, just one has not been won by the pole sitter, and even then, that was won by the guy alongside him on the grid. You have to go back to the wet race of 1996 to find a winner from off the front row (P3). This might as well be Monte Carlo, you don't see passing here. Unless there has been a complete shock in qualifying, the pole-sitter will always start short here (Raikkonen started at [1.42] last yr, Massa [2.62] the year before).

This is a pole position that everyone will have been gunning for. Button goes off at just [1.9] and deservedly so. He pulled out the big lap to pip Vettel at the death.

Every team will have made upgrades to their cars this week, some major, some minor. McLaren struggled in early practice and look completely off the pace. They plan to have a series of minor improvements rather than one big one.

So look for them to hit their straps about Japan! Brawn and Red Bull should have it between them again, Toyota and Renault just haven't shown the consistency yet. Massa's performance this weekend will be worth keeping an eye on for future races. There's a small chance of rain according to the FIA. There'd need to be plenty to put anyone other than Brawn or Red Bull on the podium.

I'm not in the business of what the Americans would call "eating chalk" or backing short-priced favourites so we need to look at alternatives for a bet. I'm keen on the Winning Margin market again.

Last year's race was quite close with under six seconds between first and fourth (3.2s between the front pair), but there hasn't been another race that close in a long time. In fact, in the 18 races at Circuit de Catalunya, we've had 12 races won by 10 seconds or more, five victories in the 5 to 9.99 bracket and last year's tight one, where there was a safety car during the first pit stop window, when the gaps usually get stretched. Back the 10 seconds and over winning margin at [2.3] or better.