Spanish Grand Prix Betting: Barcelona expects

Formula One / David Croft / 08 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

A sense of anticipation pervades in Spain as Formula 1 comes to Europe. But does David Croft expect events on the track to take a different course?

And so after the first stint of fly-away races in 2009, Formula 1 returns to it's European heartland for the next nine Grand Prix. The feeling of being back at home hits you as soon as you enter the paddock. A row of giant motor-homes that the teams use to entertain and house staff and sponsors stands across the way a fleet of trucks line up, all in perfect formation as mechanics and engineers scuttle to and fro.

The scuttling seems more frantic though this year with each team taking the opportunity of the first European race to fit an array of upgrades to their cars, some hoping that it will kick-start their season, others confident that the alterations will merely confirm their good form.

It's a weekend of expectancy once again but for me, for all the changes made by the chasing pack, the expectancy once again is that the Brawn GP boys will be adding another trophy to their ever expanding cabinet.

Whilst some teams are trying to catch up, the former Honda outfit have introduced a major upgrade on their car which on first showing - and you should never take the evidence of first practice as total proof - seems to be enough to keep them ahead.

Jenson Button finished the session with the quickest time, incidentally only the second time this season he's been quickest in a practice session,the Championship leader enjoyed the advantage of running the soft tyres at the end of the 90 minutes. But here's a team that doesn't do low fuel runs in practice, normally carrying between 60 and 70kg's onboard and still they were 4/10th's of a second quicker than Jarno Trulli. Was this an ominous sign for the rest of the weekend to come?

Understandably, Button is at the top of Betfair's win and qualifying markets, the Brit currently [2.86] for the race and [3.4] for qualifying but looking at the form guide I just wonder if his team mate isn't a better bet here in Barcelona. Jenson has never finished higher than sixth in eight previous attempts, it's not one of his favourite circuits. Rubens Barichello meanwhile, starting his 275th Grand Prix this weekend, has enjoyed three podium finishes including second place in 2004. And whilst his success came during his years with Ferrari, you can't disguise the fact that at [17.5] for the race and [15.0] to win qualifying, the Brazilian is outstanding value given that he's driving the best car on the grid, and the same car as Button. I know he was a second adrift in practice this morning, but that can be explained by the fact that he wasn't running the soft tyres and didn't set a quick time at the end of the session once the track had rubbered in.

For those who think that Button has the edge over Barrichello though, who think that mentally Rubens is chasing second place, look at the market for a podium finish where Rubens is [3.55] to be spraying the champagne. He'd have been on the podium in Bahrain had he not had a problem with his front wing in qualifying which in turn compromised his race. For too long he was stuck behind Nelson Piquet's KERS carrying Renault, and even a change to a three stop strategy couldn't promote him any higher than fourth. At times though, his pace was blistering so don't ignore him this weekend.

For those still wavering, there's always the winning car market which has Brawn GP at a best priced [2.6], not a huge difference to the price for a Button win and you get two cars for the price of one here.

The chance of any rain this weekend seems to have disappeared so I'd rule out a safety car given the wide run off areas here at the track, Betfair's market has the chance of the safety car not appearing as [1.64].

Finally only 1.6 seconds covered the 20 cars in first practice today, the grid is getting ever closer together which means that more pressure will rest on the driver's shoulders when it comes to qualifying. One little slip and the session is ruined, one badly timed flying lap and you're out - just ask Mark Webber who became the innocent victim in Bahrain as he came across other drivers backing up to give themselves space ahead of their next timed lap.

The new regulations seem to be working well so far, keeping the teams on their toes. Fingers crossed that then that they'll aid overtaking here as well, this track may be the toughest challenge to the hopes of the new regs that we'll face this year. If you can overtake in Barcelona, you can overtake anywhere.