Singarpore Grand Prix Betting: Hamilton on pole but can Red Bulls' seize chance?

Formula One / Scott Ferguson / 26 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"This is the Red Bulls' golden opportunity. They’ll be desperate to win, but it will be difficult to beat Hamilton. "

With the Brawns facing mission impossible, Scott Ferguson believes the way is open for the World Champion to record his second race win of the season. Meanwhile, the Red Bull have a golden opportunity to make up some championship points...

After the scandal of last year's race, it's time some quality racing made the headlines.

At Monza I tipped Barrichello on the high-speed circuit with fast corners, where the Brazilian used a one-stop strategy to take the chequered flag with his Brawn. It was a tasty victory, having drifted out to [11.0] by start time. This time however, it's a virtually impossible task for the championship-leading team with Barrichello starting in 10th (after a five-place grid penalty for a replacement gearbox) and Button in 12th (just not fast enough).

That makes it a real possibility that neither driver will earn any points, although you would assume they will both now go for a one-stop strategy and bank on an accident bringing out the safety car, reducing fuel consumption.

Even ruling out Piquet's deliberate crash last year, there were still two more accidents - this circuit, like Monaco, has no margin for error. Add night time driving to a dusty circuit and there's good reason why 'Yes' for a Safety Car is trading at around [1.4]. The Brawns aren't completely out of it, but they will need luck. And if anyone can master race strategy, it is Ross Brawn.

The pace-setters have been Lewis Hamilton in his McLaren and the Red Bulls of Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber. The 'Sultan of Stevenage' has the pole, which on this circuit gives him one hand on the trophy.

With 23 corners and straights shorter than Monaco, it is very hard to overtake on this track without the aid of flag marshals. Lewis will be odds-on unless the fuel strategies are completely different and deservedly so. The gap between Hamilton and the Red Bulls would normally suggest a light fuel load, but the circumstances behind it with the red flag bringing an early halt to the final stage of qualifying, means the cars are probably on similar fuel levels (weights not released at time of writing).

A light fuel load could be an added bonus here though - if off the front, you want to stretch the gap as much as possible before you start catching the backmarkers and lose that advantage before the first stop.

The dice has fallen for the Red Bulls to close in on Button and Barrichello for the title. It is still mathematically possible for Button to be overtaken, and this is their golden opportunity. They'll be desperate to win, although it will be difficult to beat Hamilton.

Two places on the podium for Red Bull is highly possible. The winning margin is likely to be a small one but I don't see much value. It's also very hard to barrack for an 'under'. Fifteen cars were classified as finishers last year and I expect similar levels of attrition. But with the lines on [14.5] and [15.5], it really is a line ball wager.

Recommended Bets:

Back Lewis Hamilton at [1.85] or better
Back Mark Webber for a podium at [2.0] or better