Formula One / Scott Ferguson / 23 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Scott Ferguson marks your card for the glamour race of the year.

The highest-profile race of the year looks very different on paper this year - this race has been won by three recent world champions in Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen, yet not one of them has stood on a podium this season!

Qualifying position is all important in this race and once you get in front, you have to concentrate for the entire race, because a concrete wall is never more than a few feet away.

The reduction in driver aids and changes to aerodynamics mean this race will be harder than we've seen here for a while. Hamilton's win last year from third place on the grid broke a string of four straight pole wins. He got lucky with having to pit early just before a safety car which saw him fuelled up on a wet track and able to pick everyone off. He loves Monte Carlo, but let's not forget, he had plenty fall in his favour.

The last 10 races have gone to the first three on the grid - pole has four wins (04-07, traction control years), second and third have three wins each. That bit of randomness makes this result not as obvious as it seems, particularly in the expected dry conditions.

The KERS cars have hit the wall a few times in practice - the stop-start nature of Monaco will make the energy return very different to any testing they have done in the past. It could prove a huge asset, but could just as easily a handicap.

Winning margins have been profitable for me so far this year. We have six of the past 10 races in the principality under five seconds, and the remaining races won by over 13 seconds. With the lack of driver aids and will they won't they scenario of the KERS cars, safety cars are very likely to compress the field. I'll be on the under five seconds at evens or better.

Button off the pole will prove hard to beat, although Raikkonen is a big chance to take the lead into the first corner. Ferrari have been off the boil all season, with reliability, strategy and design issues. I'm prepared to take them on and cheer for another Brawn victory.

Bets...
Winning margin <5pts at evens or better.
Button to win at [1.92] or better.