Formula One / David Croft / 22 May 2009 / Leave a comment

The omens for a Button title win are good, says David Croft, but the defending champion is looking impressive and will relish the ultimate test of ability behind the wheel this weekend.

The harbour has more spaces than last year and some of the big super yachts have stayed away. The big players in the Casino are 20% down on 2008 and even the team principals are spending their day off talking about cost cutting rather than cracking open another bottle of champagne.

The whiff of credit crunch hangs over the principality but the fact remains that the real reason we gather in Monaco every year in May is the racing, and the racing this year has been a million dollars.

The form book has been turned on its head to the extent that after nearly a third of the season the three former world champions in the field - Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso - have yet to register a podium finish between them. Instead Jenson Button, the man who didn't know if he'd be racing a month before the start of the season, has been left to clean up. Four wins out of five and 40 points on the board so far have left the British driver trading at [1.7] for the title.

For those who took a chance on Button the omens are good. History tells us that all drivers who have won at least four of the first five races have gone on to become Champion. Likewise those who have 40 points at least from the opening quintet of races; Nigel Mansell, Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill and Fernando Alonso, have claimed the title too. Jenson is trying hard not to think of omens, trying hard to put the thought that he could end the year as champion out of his mind.

Instead he's talking of being more aggressive, pushing hard around the narrow streets of the principality in a bid to register only his second points scoring finish in Monaco and possibly his first win here.

Before the madness of qualifying Button starts a good value [4.0] for the win on Sunday and his team are quietly confident of success. But not just for the championship leader but also for his team mate Rubens Barichello. At every opportunity they are keen to stress that there are no team orders and that both drivers are free to race each other. The Brazilian, who turns 37 on Saturday, should really have won in Spain. However, his lap times in the middle of the race just weren't quick enough and once again his was gazumped by the man on the other side of the garage. Rubens has finished second on three occasions in Monaco and is currently [7.0] to go one better this year. He needs to for his own sake as another win for Button could be damaging for the Barichello's confidence, even after 276 Grand Prix.

Meanwhile, down at Red Bull the long awaited double decker diffuser has arrived. In theory this should put them on parity with the Brawn duo making the fight at the top even closer. However, it's in the high speed corners that they've had the advantage so far this season and there's not many of those round here. Not helped by an engine failure for Vettel in first practice, nor reliability issues for Mark Webber, it wasn't the best of practice days for a team that I expect to shine in the next race in Turkey rather than here in Monaco. Still Vettel at [5.2], still the only man to qualify in the top three at every race this year, and Webber at [14.5] look good value for the win.

As does Lewis Hamilton at [9.4], free from the aero disadvantages of his McLaren car for this weekend at least, he drove on the ragged edge for 61 laps on Thursday, loving the sense of danger that lurks round every corner. At [3.25] he remains an outstanding prospect for a podium finish and I expect him to go well.

I was looking to Toyota's Jarno Trulli to provide a challenge too, but he and his team suffered a dismal Thursday, complaining of a lack of downforce and bemoaning their inability to create more. It could be a miserable weekend in their garage as it will surely be next door at BMW. Robert Kubica suffered a spectacular engine failure shortly after describing his car as a 'disaster' whilst Nick Heidfeld complained of brake trouble, hardly welcome in this circuit. No surprise to see that they've drifted from [6.6] to [60] and I expect that to drift further.

Which leaves us with Ferrari and, whilst their president continues his argument with the FIA, could this also be the weekend that they run with the leaders? Felipe Massa, had he not suffered a fuel problem, would have left Spain with a well deserved fourth place, maybe this weekend he can go one better and at [3.85] will attract plenty of supporters behind him, hoping that he can register the Constructors' Champions first podium in 2009.