Formula One / David Croft / 03 April 2009 /

After a tumultuous few days for Formula One, David Croft looks to the sky above Sepang and predicts that Brawn GP might not have everything their own way on Sunday.

Even when you bear in mind this sport's capacity to create headlines out of seemingly innocent occurrences, the events of the last few days here in Malaysia have taken some beating.

How we got to the stage where the defending champion sat before the world's media to apologise for misleading the stewards, and how a well respected figure with 35 years of F1 experience came to be suspended by his team, taking full responsibility, only those inside McLaren really know. What I do know is that had McLaren listened to what Lewis Hamilton was telling them over the radio in the closing stages in Melbourne and acted on his words, they wouldn't have had to invent a story in a bid to keep their third place and subsequently wouldn't have been disqualified. The whole thing could have been avoided.

Still, even though the story is far from over, they've got to get on with the race because, believe it or not, we do have a Grand Prix this weekend.

A Grand Prix that starts at 5pm, a strange time for racing in this part of the world because it's a time of day that normally sees the odd downpour or three. Don't be surprised if the weather plays a huge part in the outcome, or at least acts as a leveler for those teams trying to catch up with the Brawn GP duo of Jenson Button and Rubens Barichello.

Barichello will have changed his gearbox before qualifying which means a five place grid penalty, something which backers need to take into account should they be tempted by his price of [6.2]. Jenson Button meanwhile, is going to attract plenty of support given that not only is he sitting in the best machine at present, but that his skills in the wet have been well documented in the past. If there's anyone you fancy to give you a run for your money in the rain, it's Button and that's one of the reasons he's trading at [3.35].

Ferrari showed in Friday practice just why they can be so frustrating for their followers. Kimi Raikkonen finished the second session as the fastest man on the track but in the morning was forced into a flying dismount as his car came to stop in the pitlane, smoke pouring from the cockpit. The Finn stated that he had a problem with his KERS system, it looked like more than just a problem to us as he desperately tried to see above the clouds of foul smelling smoke. Had his battery suffered in the high temperatures here in Sepang? It certainly looked like it. Raikkonen is currently trading at [8.0] for the race, a decent price but can his car hold together for the 56 laps?

Felipe Massa had a more straight forward day and given that the Ferraris appear to be more competitive here than they were in Australia, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take pole in Malaysia for the third year in a row. Betfair's qualifying market has him at a best price of [9.0] to do so.

Should the Brazilian manage that or at least make the second row, the boost from KERS off the line could well give Ferrari the advantage they need to give the Brawn GP cars a run for their money.

Meanwhile, Williams and Toyota, enjoying the benefit of their clever diffuser design have to be taken seriously. Nico Rosberg recorded the fastest lap of the morning session and Sebastian Vettel, the man who won brilliantly in the pouring rain in Monza last season, is well worth considering for the win at [19.0] - his price of [2.08] to come home in the points seems good value too. However, he must learn from his mistake last weekend and show some maturity when called for on the track.

I'm expecting an open race where the Brawn GP cars might not have everything their own way. As Jenson Button says: 'We haven't tested in the wet yet. We don't know what to expect if it does rain in the race'. For once the man who excels in the wet is praying for it to stay dry, but looking at the skies as I type, I can't see his wish coming true.

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