Formula One / James Frankland / 15 October 2011 /

The title race is over but the season certainly isn't and with Sebastian Vettel's work all but done for the year, it should be left to Jenson Button to be celebrate after the chequered flag.

Just as Red Bull Racing were set to claim another record by taking 16 pole positions in a single season, McLaren struck back to take their first pole since the 2010 Canadian Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton put his recent traumas behind him to pip newly-crowned double world champion Sebastian Vettel by two tenths of a second, setting up an intriguing race at the Yeongam circuit.

Red Bull have been steadily caught by McLaren over the course of the season, and as we saw last time out in Japan, can be beaten in a straight fight, even if last week Red Bull had one eye on getting Vettel the solitary point he needed to clinch the drivers' championship.

Tomorrow's race will be one for the tyre strategists, and as ever that plays into the hands of Jenson Button, who starts third. Pirelli have brought the soft and super-soft tyres to this race which will need careful management throughout in order to be in contention for the win, exactly the type of approach which allowed Button to jump Hamilton and Vettel in Japan. Button has not been off the podium since winning in Hungary five races ago and is available at [1.6] to continue that run or [4.9] to be on the top step for the second time in seven days.

I expect the top three qualifiers - Hamilton, Vettel, Button - to be on the podium together but if you think one of them may trip up along the way then Mark Webber is best-placed to take advantage at [2.62] from fourth on the grid. The Ferraris can probably be counted out of podium contention unless a significant upturn in performance is found overnight - Felipe Massa hasn't sprayed the champagne all season and Alonso was over a second off the Korea pole time, suggesting the red cars don't have massive pace here.

The nature of the Korean circuit means that a safety car is almost certain if there's an incident in the first or last sectors of the track, as it is lined by concrete walls which bite back hard, should a delicate Formula One car stray too near. The [1.83] for a safety car appearance is probably therefore worth a look.

The last time I mentioned the fastest lap market, it was to point out that at that stage Sebastian Vettel had not recorded the quickest race lap in any Grand Prix. So what happens? He goes out and does it at the European Grand Prix. That remains the only time he has done so this season and McLaren have dominated this statistic for the last three races, with Button showing the pace in Singapore and Japan. There's some value in the silver cars continuing that record tomorrow, with Button at [4.5] and Hamilton at [4.2] to set fastest lap. Vettel is available at [4.0] but I feel the pace is with McLaren right now.

Recommended bets:

Jenson Button to win @ [4.9]
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium @ [1.39]
Lewis Hamilton to set fastest lap @ [4.2]

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