Formula One / David Croft / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

He may be the favourite but at a rain soaked Suzuka, David Croft doesn't expect Lewis Hamilton to make the podium. And we shouldn't expect Jenson Button to be crowned champion this weekend either...

"Vettel is priced at [4.2] and his team-mate Mark Webber [9.6], both excellent value should their engines hold out."

After a three year absence whilst the Japanese Grand Prix headed off to the picturesque, if a little dull, Fuji Speedway, the circus rolld into Suzuka once more.

Anticipation in the press room was high today but the rain came down and stayed with us all day and, as I write this column, it's still falling.

Sadly, and understandably due to the tyre limitations placed on the teams, there was little meaningful running on the track in both practice sessions.The forecast says it should clear up tomorrow during a day that will start damp. Fingers crossed it will hold off 0until after the race, but given that a third of the 24 previous Japanese Grand Prix have been rain affected I'm not putting total faith in that prediction.

Even with the possibility of a mixed up grid due, the two Red Bull cars will be the ones to catch this weekend.

In the wet this morning Sebastian Vettel nailed a quite stunning opening lap, to be expected given his previous form in those conditions. But even when the track dries, the high speed corners that mark this unique track should suit him and his car. Vettel is priced at [4.2] and his team-mate Mark Webber [9.6], both excellent value should their engines hold out. Vettel is using the engine that brought him home in Monza and, should it last, he'll use the same power train for the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi.

Think back to Silverstone and Nurburgring, the tracks that gave Red Bull such success this season. Suzuka is on the same level and crucially doesn't give those cars running KERS the advantage that McLaren put to such good use around Singapore and Hungary. Speaking this morning Heikki Kovalainen said that he was unable to speed flat out through the legendary '130 R' turn. Adrian Sutil had in his Force India. "Our expectations", he said, "are not high this weekend"

Thus I'd rule Lewis Hamilton out of my podium choices.

Meanwhile, over in the Brawn garage there is a real feeling that this weekend they could be the best of the rest. If McLaren can't make good use of KERS and Ferrari, more concerned with giving Fernando Alonso a good car for 2010, have stopped developing this year's racer, Brawn could take advantage.

They may face a challenge from Adrian Sutil at Force India, Nico Rosberg at Williams and Fernando Alonso himself, but there's no reason why either Jenson Button at [4.0] or Rubens Barichello at [3.4] shouldn't make the podium. You might expect Jenson Button to be the more cautious of the two given that he could end the weekend as world champion, but he says he's here just to concentrate on the race, so we'll have to take him at face value for the time being.

Meanwhile back to Adrian Sutil who at [5.2] could be the best outside bet of the lot for the podium. Force India ran well at Spa which has similar high speed corners. The team have made further improvements and crucially Sutil after racing in Japan a few years ago has experience of this circuit.

Incidentally, eight of the current grid have never raced an F1 car here. The trouble with Sutil is that you need to have faith that he won't do anything silly. He can be blindingly quick and just as easily suffer a moment of brain fade and ruin his chances. He's one for the brave but the rewards are there.

And the reward for Red Bull could easily be a one-two finish. Those siding with the Milton Keynes team can back them at [2.82] and given that unlike Ferrari or McLaren they have two drivers capable of winning here in Japan, that may prove an attractive price for many who think that the Bulls have got this race by the horns.

Tags: Brawn GP, David Croft, Japanese Grand Prix Odds, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton, Mark Webber, Motor Sports betting, Red Bull, Sebastiel Vettel