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Japanese Grand Prix Betting: Quietly confident McLaren ready for the rain

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Last season Mount Fuji was the scene of one of Lewis Hamilton's finest performances. Can he repeat victory there on Sunday? wonders Tom Cowie.

If Ferrari had taken their latest time-saving device in to the Dragon's Den, it would have been greeted with the infamous response that they had invented a solution to a problem which doesn't exist.

Their 'traffic light' pitstop system may have faster responses than a human holding a lollipop, but the tenths of a second it could save were undermined by the 10 points it cost Felipe Massa in Singapore.

This case of over-development dealt Massa's title challenge a serious blow, and surely contributed to Luca di Montezemelo's scathing attack on the Singapore circuit as the Ferrari President tried to deflect media attention away from the Scuderia's worst day at the office this term.

As well as Massa's disaster, Raikkonen's amateurish slide in to retirement perfectly reflected his dreadful form, and the fact that he appears to have already turned his attention to 2009.

Fernando Alonso became the seventh different race winner this season in Singapore, and proved that given the opportunity he is still the real deal. The ink may be dry on Raikkonen's contract extension, but he will be keeping a cautions eye on the Spaniard, whose Ferrari aspirations are public knowledge.

Mclaren's decision to settle for third rather than allow Hamilton to push for second reflected a quiet confidence. Their car is more consistent than the Ferrari, and is definitely better in the rain - something that Japan's Mount Fuji circuit is famous for.

The Toyota-owned track replaced the popular Honda-owned Suzuka circuit as the venue for the Japanese GP last year. The weather was appalling, and gave Lewis Hamilton the perfect stage to demonstrate just how much talent he has. It wasn't his first win, but it was one of his best.

Hamilton wasn't the first Mclaren - driving Englishman to demonstrate his wet weather prowess in the shadow of Mount Fuji however - that accolade went to James Hunt, who secured the World Championship here in quite appalling conditions in 1976.

The conditions were so bad that the reigning World Champion, and championship contender Niki Lauda retired his Ferrari after only two laps, complaining that the conditions were too dangerous.

It is highly unlikely that Massa will follow Lauda's example this weekend, whatever the elements throw at him. A blown engine in Hungary, and the Singapore debacle have cost him 20 points and a championship lead. Despite these setbacks, he has maintained a steely resolve, and a previously unseen maturity.

He is undoubtedly champion material, but at the moment Ferrari are not. They cannot afford any more mistakes or reliability issues. One more false move and Massa could be left with too much to do in the remaining races.

Ferrari's failure to score any points in Singapore gave Mclaren the lead in the Constructor's battle - a prize that Ron Dennis will be desperate to win after the ugly and hugely damaging 'Spygate' affair last season.

The performances of Heikki Kovalainen and fellow countryman Raikkonen will be crucial in determining who ultimately comes out on top between Massa and Hamilton. In this area, Massa could find himself at a disadvantage.

Raikkonen is the World Champion, with damaged pride, and an increasing number of critics. He has a point to prove, and playing second fiddle to his young team-mate will not be high on his priority list. Kimi has many racing attributes - but being a team player is not one of them.

Contrast this with the situation at Mclaren. After a difficult F1 baptism with Renault, Kovaleinen was given a lifeline by Mclaren. He is still learning his craft, and understands that his role is to assist Hamilton wherever possible. If Massa is to become World Champion, he will have to do it the hard way - something that both he and Hamilton will be acutely aware of.