Italian Grand Prix Betting: Hamilton takes pole

Formula One / Scott Ferguson / 11 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Rather than back Hamilton at 2.2, Id rather go with Barrichello @ 9.4."

Scott Ferguson reports on the final qualifying round at Monza and selects the best bets for tomorrow's big race.

Monza is a track steeped in history, a classic racetrack where raw speed reigns supreme, but it is as rare on the F1 touring circuit as the streets of Monaco, so many teams aren't suited here as they focus their development on the more standard tracks.

McLaren have gone well here over the years, finishing first, second or both for the last four seasons. Lewis Hamilton claimed pole right at the death, aided by an error from Sutil, but that won't have much effect come race time.

Hamilton faces two threats tomorrow at different times - Kimi Raikkonen sits directly behind him and has KERS as well. But how much of an advantage is it when both teams have KERS? Not a lot you'd think. Heiki Kovalainen is beside the Ferrari in fourth, and has a good chance to repeat his second placing here last year.

The other big threat is the Brawns of Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button on the third row. Whilst they don't have KERS to slingshot them past others coming into the chicanes, they will be on a one-stop strategy. So if they can keep within 25 seconds of the leader on lap times, and based on qualifying, that is a serious possibility, they are strong contenders for victory. Barrichello holds the slight advantage on the grid if its close and Brawn are likely to be more concerned about keeping other teams off the podium rather than the pecking order within the team.

With markets still re-forming after qualifying it is hard to recommend a bet but looking at previous races here, it is not a hard circuit on the cars; there have only been eight cars not classified in the past four races here. Winning margins have not been large, last year's 12.5 second margin for Vettel being the largest this decade.

Rather than back Hamilton at [2.2], Id rather go with Barrichello. He has won here before in a Ferrari, he was running as fast as Hamilton on a light load in Q2, and close enough on the full load in Q3 to pose a real threat. At 9 at time of writing, that looks some value to me. Kovalainen from the second row is a shot at a podium finish also.

Recommended Bets

Back Barrichello to win @ [8.0] or better
Back Kovalainen for a podium placing @ 3.2 or better